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Technology Stocks : Norsat Intl (Nasdaq:NSAT)value and growth in Wireless -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JimBeamII who wrote (180)	1/2/2000 10:47:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 397

Jim: And a happy new year to you! To Thread--In the past week there have been some comments on Globalstar. To clear up some misstatements: Globalstar is controlled by Loral, not Vodafone. The latter is one of the original founding partners, and one of the key service providers. But, control is clearly Loral's--they share the same Chairman, Bernie Schwartz! I am long on G, so take the following comments with that in mind: Tieing Norsat with G is not exactly aligning them with a blue blood tech company. G* is still a development stage company. It is still an open question whether anyone will come to the party they are offering, and start putting minutes onto all those satellites they have up there. In any case, it is probably 18 months from profitability. (The company's own estimates are for breakeven by YE2000, but mgt estimates have constistently "moved to the right" throughout their history). The consensus is that G* is worth nothing, or $200, depending on whether they can prove their business model in the next 3 months. Loral is a bit of a tarnished company politically, related to a Chinasat launch, in which they were alleged to have helped China gain some satellite technology. The charge is viewed as largely bogus on the Loral board (and I agree), but it seems to partly explain the extreme delay in licensing G* for U.S. operation.--That license was just recently granted. The point I want to make is: To the extent Norsat's price is based on G, then you may be taking more risk than seems to being expressed on this board. If you want that risk, you might be better served by taking a position in G. OTOH, to the extent you can base the price on the ODU's and an anticipated January event, then Norsat's price may be justified, imo. I am not currently long Norsat, btw. My thought was that too much of the current price is based on the Globalstar tie-up, and I am full of Globalstar risk. So, before anyone flames me for any comments, my decision reflects my portfolio, not a short position on Norsat. Best, JS