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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (74733)	12/31/1999 1:36:00 PM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 97611

El -- <<" believe we'll get a new cfo and that it will be the acting cfo">> Well after getting the ceo from in house and seeing the results I would hope they would get an outsider with a name,,, hell,, give hi 1/2 mil share grant! The 1/4 mil shares they gave away did not do much...

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (74733)	12/31/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: harkenman	Respond to of 97611

Good analysis on earnings. CPQ sales are higher than DELL. I'm only concerned with profit margins which has gone from 10% in early 90's down to 1% in 1999. DELL margins is around 10% Also return on capital is about 14% compared to 60% for DELL. The new CFO has a lot of b--t kicking to do to improve profictability. Something like a "Steve Jobs coming back to APPL" to overhaul the company. Until then a lot of deception. I will be waiting and covering if something like that happens.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (74733)	12/31/1999 3:07:00 PM
From: Andreas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

To Elwood; Sure, I'll take a stab. After all, my 25 3/4 end of year guess wasn't exactly a ringer. Given my track record you should all do well if you do the opposite of me. My crystal ball tells me that cpq will rise to about 30 by January 21. Unfortunately, it will be about that time that the market begins a 15% correction. Tech stocks will be hit hard during this correction (worries of a 50 basis point increase by Greenspan may amplify correction to 20%). CPQ will of course get killed along with other techs and drop to about 25 which will nullify the moderate good earnings news. The correction will last about 6 weeks. Thereafter, the market generally will be stagnant through about april as investors are shell shocked and reluctant to jump back in with both feet. Heavy institutional buying after correction will drive cpq back up to 30 by april. Unfortunately, extremely heavy resistance at 30 will leave cpq bouncing around 30 - 32.50 throughout the summer. Market will begin another autumn rise beginning in september. By this time, institutional investors will be more positive on cpq as it is a laggard in the tech sector. cpq will be taken to 40 - 45 by year end as turnaround becomes clear. On January 1, 2001 a huge meteor will hit earth and we will all be dead and quite unable to spend the millions we had finally made from our beloved cpq. Time to get drunk! Happy New Year everyone. Go CPQ!!!

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (74733)	12/31/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Night Writer	Respond to of 97611

El, Here's my fearless forecast for 2000. Compaq doesn't warn next Friday, breaks resistance at 28, goes to 35 to 37 1/2 by the 21st. MC announces the OJT is the new CFO and earnings are $.16 but analysts complain about the top line. The market fears a Fed rate hike and drops CPQ back to $30-$32. Fed doesn't raise rates and relief rally spikes us to $40, but we drop back to mid 30s. The .coms correct as people start looking for them to make money. CPQ has a decent 1Q, but we trade in the 35 to 38 range as the Fed raises interest rates a half point in April. 2Q is better and we move up to 38 to 41 range. 3Q we look better as internuts are shaking out on who survives and who doesn't and it become plain that CPQ is a strong internut that makes money and has no debt. Fed lowers interest a quarter point in September due to concerns about too much economic cooling. A steady price increase takes CPQ to $70 in Jan 2001. The newly discovered Astroid misses the Earth and moon by 50,000 miles, but we have a new President that wins on the promise of wiring all the schools with iPaqs with funds from a 30% Capital gains tax. Happy New Year!! NW