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To: Razorbak who wrote (57697)	12/31/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 95453

Razorbak, Actually I think much differently about the impact of the resignation of Yeltsin. Of course I must disclose that I am very long Russian stocks (especially Lukoil). The way I see it, Russia is becoming more stable with Putin most likely winning the presidential elections. Most investors agree with this (witness the soaring Russian stocks today). So, how does it affect oil prices?? Well, I think it affects oil prices on the demand side. Russia has already registered a 1.5-2.0% growth for 1999 (contrary to IMF expectations). GDP growth in Q3 was 5.6%. Most of the rest of the former soviet states are registering growth in GDP and industrial production. Putin is a reform-minded leader and the population likes him. He will help to get some of the legislation passed to fix the tax and justice system in Russia among other things. This should cement the uptrend in the Russian economic recovery. This means that oil will be in higher demand. Demand has dropped dramatically during the halving of GDP over the last 10 years. With demand increasing again, this will continue to keep oil markets tight. Also, note that all recent analysis that I have seen had assumed that Russian and the former soviet states would have lackluster growth for years. If higher growth is not in oil demand forecasts, that will just reinforce the trend of higher oil prices. ...On Chechnya. It is basically over. It will probably be a small headache for years, but the last militant strongholds will be falling within days.

To: Razorbak who wrote (57697)	12/31/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Razor: It is now the Year of The Dragon and the lights are glowing all across Asia. koreaherald.co.kr The millenium is born and so Asia is resurgent. Time enough to discuss the Russian Bear. I will look forward to doing so in the days ahead. Here is something to ponder as the next thousand years unfolds: economictimes.com The star of Asia is now firmly on the ascent. Watch Korea, China, and India as they leap upward towards their apotheosis of economic leadership in Asia. Watch them burn lots and lots of oil as they do so. I am told it takes lots of energy to ascend into the Pantheon. <G> I hoist a glass in your honor, with best wishes for the new year. May your little piggy litter grow to be huge fat hogs and supply you and yours with endless cornucopia. <g> As always, BigBull, resplendent on a field of Dragons <vvvbg>