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To: David C. Burns who wrote (3582)1/1/2000 2:48:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
David,

There are two issues at play, one being Fed liquidity and Individual liquidity flowing into the market due to IRA contributions, bonuses and Y2K fears not materializing (money pulled out comes back in next week).

I was speaking to the first issue, but with regard to the second, it will happen, just watch the first 2-3 weeks of the year.

RE interest rates, the bond market has ALREADY 100% priced in a FEB hike and a 50% chance of another hike thereafter. The first one is a non-event. The second will be an over reaction if LEI's stay tame.

As Bill Seidman said, recessions are usually CASUED by a hawkish Fed.

Regards,

MileHigh