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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (84587)	1/2/2000 12:10:00 PM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 1572676

Without going into greater detail than I can competently cope with (dangling preps are okay now, I am told.) I have been looking for around $0.44/share for some time now as I published in a much earlier post. I see no reason yet to alter this stance. Good luck to all in this, the last year of the second millennium. Regards, DARBES

To: Goutam who wrote (84587)	1/3/2000 1:45:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1572676

Goutama, suggested evaluation function for the earnings contest: 1. There should be a winner for each individual category - but if the winner's estimate was made after 11/30/99 and an earlier estimate was almost as close (within 1/3 of a standard deviation), the earlier estimate should be judged the winner. 2. The overall winner is chosen by taking the error in each category and dividing it by the standard deviation of the estimates in that category to obtain the category errors. 3. Since this is an eps contest, the category error for eps should be weighted by a factor of 2. 4. Since K6x volume and ASP is not as significant for AMD's future as the other categories, the category error for these two categories should be multiplied by 0.5. 5. The weighted category errors for each contestant are summed to obtain the overall error for each contestant. The contestant with the lowest overall error is the winner. If the winner made his/her estimate after 11/30/99, the best of the earlier estimates should also be recognized. 6. If no estimate is made in a category, a value of 2 should be assigned to the weighted category error, or 1 in the case of K6x ASP and volume. 7. We should also do the calculations for the average SI, Yahoo and JC-News estimate, to determine the "smartest investor group" (could it be anything but SI???) I've calculated the standard deviations for each of the categories in the earnings contest to two decimal places. EPS: 0.24 (but divide error by 0.12 to give the 2:1 weighting) K7 volume: 0.17M K7 ASP: $21 K6 volume: 0.43M (but divide by 0.87 to reduce weighting) K6 ASP: $6 (but divide by 12 to reduce weighting) Mem Sales: $19M Stock Price: $5.50 As an example, suppose AMD's actuals came in at EPS=0.30, K7=1.2M@$260, K6=4.5M@$53, Mem=$240M, price=$38 My own estimate of 0.34, 1.1M@250, 4.8M@50, 270M, $35.00 would get an error of 0.04/0.12 + 0.1M/0.17M + 10/21 + 0.3/0.87 + 3/12 + 30/19 + 3/5.5 My overall error would be 4.12, a little over 40% of the error due to one category -- memory sales. Petz note- in calculating the standard deviations, I removed Yousef's -0.62 and panic mobs 1.10. Also, Michael Dakota's $4X stock price was taken as $45.