To: kemble s. matter who wrote (150101 ) 1/2/2000 2:39:00 PM From: Sig Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
RE: Dell estimate for 2000 In Dec 1997, with Dell at $86 , Pat estimated year end price of Dell at $155 Here was my reply: To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (26649) From: Sig Wednesday, Dec 31, 1997 11:56 PM ET Reply # of 150108 Pat: For many months over the past year the growth rate of Dell has been approximately $0.3 per day which is a figure I use to overcome noise and other diversions. (others may figure differently) With about 240 market days that would come to 0.3 x240 or or $72 increase for next year.Which gives $156 price, so there must be an error in your computation which gives the much lesser figure of only $155/sh. ( I wish Steve could write this post)HeHeHeHe) I am just kidding but our figures do agree. I consider it a safe figure to help determine whether Dell is a good investment when compared to other stocks.Actually when Dell has surprises they are usually to the upside, like 1 million, 2 million, 3 million Indians.... 4 million, 5 million, 6 million Indians.... 7 etc . (and those are American Indians) SES --------------------------------------------------------------------- Now a one year estimate should be much easier than a 5 year estimate, right? Well what happened was this: 4 months later By April 1998 Dell reached $168/sh 1 year later, Jan 1999 Dell reached $440/sh So our 12-mon. estimates of $155 were low by $284/share(G) Summary: Allowing 0.3$/avg increase in Dell per day (which turned out to be very conservative)would provide $122/share at end of yr 2000. Which would allow for a split for which the shares are available and no vote is required. Michael may have a very good year, I may have a very good year, EVERYBODY holding Dell may have a good year. Regards Sig