Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marvin Mansky who wrote (36281)	1/1/2000 9:39:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

--Marvin You pass along your broker's comment that, There is simply a greater probability of 65 to 70 in AOL for the next one and a half months than a rise from here towards the 90's Technically speaking, using the word probability in its statistical sense rather than as a word to make someone's subjective guess sound somehow "scientific," there is a lower probability of AOL going down than up over the next month. The probability, based on the average price change for the past month, is about 26% further downside and 74% no further downside, that is, 3:1 odds against further downside. This is calculated using ordinary statistical probability. Which isn't to say AOL won't or can't go down further. It can and might. But those are the current odds. AOL is in a short-term downtrend after an enormous upmove, a very common event. Volume has been low recently, way below the average for the last month. Though no one ever said you couldn't get killed on low volume, I can't put much importance on price movement with low volume. What AOL obviously needs is significant news. Unless some unexpected news occurs, the first significant scheduled news event for AOL's stock may be Yahoo's earnings about January 11. If Yahoo has blowout earnings, it will suggest AOL's e-commerce and advertising revenues will be good and probably move AOL's stock ahead of its own earnings in mid-January. Best, --Steve

To: Marvin Mansky who wrote (36281)	1/2/2000 12:19:00 AM
From: linsol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Not EVERYBODY, but a lot. From what I have heard around at the message boards. They are just parking money where the action is. Actually this is good because most people want to have AOL as a core holding. The quick cash they are making chasing the flavor of the month will eventually wind up right back in AOL.I think many will start snatching it up as soon as it hits the right price. Also it could be that y2k nervousness had more than the usual amount of people going into cash this week. If that's the case then AOL might recover sooner than we think! BTW, a simple eye never hurt anyone.