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To: wily who wrote (36154)1/2/2000 2:11:00 AM
From: Barry Grossman  Respond to of 93625
 
businessweek.com@@TlJ4dWQQ0DeMYgAA/premium/00_02/b3663076.htm

BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : JANUARY 10, 2000 ISSUE
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2000 -- INFORMATION

Is There Life before Playstation 2?

Ten-year-old Satoshi Kusakabe is a typical Japanese youth. He loves his Pokemon trading cards, Game Boy, and video-game collection. The native of Yamagata in northern Japan owns several dozen software titles and--get this--three video-game consoles: a Nintendo 64, a Sony PlayStation, and a Sega Saturn. So in 2000, will Satoshi buy the new Sega Dreamcast or Sony Corp.'s upcoming PlayStation 2? It's a no-brainer. 'I'm getting the new PlayStation,' he says. 'It's supposed to have the best performance.'

In five short years, Sony (SNE) has morphed from a maker of Trinitron TVs and camcorders into the King of Games. The buzz about the new PS2, due in March, is so loud that game-crazed Japanese kids are shunning Dreamcast to wait for Sony. Never mind the fact that the Sega Enterprises Ltd. (SEGNY) machine won raves for its speed and mesmerizing graphics, and that it sells for $199, compared to an expected $385 for the PS2. Even in the U.S., where Dreamcast is a hit, many gamesters will wait for the PS2's fall 2000 debut, predicts Ed Roth, vice-president of game market researcher NPD Group.

This business is no kiddie game. Total world production of console hardware and software has grown from $10 billion to about $14 billion in the past two years, according to Japanese industry research. Of that, Japanese companies accounted for more than $10 billion in 1999--half of which was exported around the world. In the U.S., console game software alone rang up sales of $3.7 billion. Sales predictions for 2000 range from flat in the U.S. to an 8% or 9% gain for Japan.

Until the PS2 actually ships, however, nobody is going to declare Sony the winner. The Dreamcast, with its fast 128-bit microprocessors, has been flying off U.S. shelves since its September launch. It's not the only competition for Sony. Sometime in 2001, it will have to deal with a new Nintendo console, code-named Dolphin, that may run on a 256-bit chip. Around the same time, all three Japanese game makers may be fighting off an assault by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Hey, this a heck of an arms race. Somebody really ought to turn it into a video game.

By Irene M. Kunii in Tokyo