To: Martin Milani who wrote (36336 ) 1/2/2000 2:35:00 PM From: Sly_ Respond to of 41369
Is it on Stevies list? Check this out! Text of Harmon's AOL recommendation. I don't know if the list is in order alphabetically but AOL came first on the list this year. Business to Consumer (B2C) AOL (NYSE:AOL) -Largest installed user base of any Internet media company -Most revenues of any Internet media company -Best brand recognition among consumers -Most diverse in its services: AOL Online, ICQ, Netscape, AOL.com, AOL Instant Messenger Critics laud the B2C space as played out, old hat. But one form in the sector above all others seems to have become a bonafide consumer franchise: AOL (NYSE:AOL). AOL has been one of my favorites for 3 years straight. Not because it offers a high-end Internet power user the ultimate driving experience. Quite the contrary. When 'You've Got Mail' (the movie) hit cinemas globally it was kind of a strange moment as I recalled AOL in 1994 with less than 1 million subscribers, heavy losses, and a #3 position behind CompuServe and Prodigy in consumer online services. AOL didn't have mail then, nor did you. Just losses. As the Web drew near in 1995-96 I began to doubt AOL could or would make the shift from proprietary to Internet-based (hence my belief in Yahoo). But as it reacted to the Web, and embraced the Web, without giving up its own software or ways of user interface, it became apparent that AOL was making the right moves in 1997-98. Embrace and extend, the old Microsoft trick. AOL was also a pioneer in the venture space for Internet as it created its Greenhouse unit several years ago to make investments in companies that complemented AOL. Most important though I believe is AOL's adroitness for moving with the market, marketing to the needs of consumers, focusing on the user experience. The most valuable aspect of AOL continues to be its massive user base across multiple platforms. AOL Online boasts more than 20 million subscribers; CompuServe (which it acquired) has more than 2 million; Netscape.com is still a popular destination for Web users. And instant messaging platform ICQ (which AOL bought for pennies to the dollar a few years ago) has more than 40 million global users. Indeed, on its own, ICQ is probably the world's largest, and I would say most valuable, consumer online service. More valuable for the future than AOL Online I think in ICQ's flexibility and scope of offerings. To top it all off, AOL's revenue runs about $6 billion annually with net income that surpasses what many Internet startups aspire to generate in revenues some day. As a fan of Warren Buffett I have made the connection to Buffett's thinking about consumer franchise investing. Buffett likes to invest in consumer franchises. He owns Coca Cola or Gillette stock based on that notion. Well, in my opinion the only company to actually enjoy a consumer franchise in the Internet is AOL. It's not about technology, it's about experience. AOL is a consumer service experience. Same as drinking a Coke or shaving with Gillette are experiences that we do over and over. AOL fits in the same camp, a repetitive experience, and that's why its attention to making a user-friendly interface and service put them on top. Not for the Internet power user but for the average person who wants an easy-to-use online/Internet experience. I believe AOL has more built in potential to extend its services than any other single technology or Internet company. It can grow into broadband services quite easily since AOL is a service and not technology per se. AOL may become a leader in DSL and cable Internet much as HBO or MTV has become in cable programming. It's not about the wire it's about what's delivered via it. Consider that AT&T seems hamstrung by regional Bell wars; Microsoft has the government on its back. Only AOL has reached the global awareness as an Internet company. The only other company that I think may have a shot at this kind of summit is Yahoo. But the bang for the buck AOL is -- and I mean this in a positive way -- the McDonalds of the Internet. May not be the most advanced or may not be for power users. But it's a predictable diet of online commerce and content that mainstream users I think may continue to embrace. And if the Internet migrates to TV or other platforms as it already is then AOL has that chance to flow with the new directions. Yahoo is a real threat however since I believe Yahoo management really 'gets' the Internet in a more fundamental way than AOL. AOL is the marketing master. Of the two, AOL at these valuations, under $200 billion, looks attractive, especially for a long-term portfolio piece (5 to 10 years). If you consider that there are about 200 million Internet users globally and that about 50 million of them use an AOL service of some sort then the power of AOL's reach and girth starts to set in. The array of new services it could offer and its built in leverage is mind boggling. Where Microsoft is locked into software, AOL is locked into service, and service scales much faster than pure software. Service is in fact technology neutral, that's why NBC or Disney are still making films and cartoons long after Steamboat Willie and the Partridge Family. ###