To: Ruffian who wrote (58915 ) 1/2/2000 5:31:00 PM From: marginmike Read Replies (5) | Respond to
A a contrarian it strikes me as odd that everyone is calling Tech flat next year. As a contrarian by nature I find that reassuring. I for one think we are entering a period in which old line business, Financials included, get the life squezzed out of them by the economic efficiencies caused by the internet. The end of this cycle and end bull market will be caused by a deflationary spiral caused by prices continuing down. If you look at the deflationary pressure caused by Hightech now, wonder what it will be like in 2 years when Everyone can use the Internet, and it proforms effiently. In my business the margins have eroded by 10-20% and there are still many not using the tools of the internet to helpthemselves. I have always been a low margin compettior and very competitive. I must now compete with others who can no longer hide behind the lack of information to buy and sell goods. This proccess is beginning in Europe and ASIA and is in the 3rd inning here. This process will create a huge profit squeeze for big fat lazy institutions like Mortgage co's and Bank's and high paying brokerages. It will slam Retail high end co's and Ellectronic and Computer distributors. When these profit squeeze occcurs there will be a shakeout and a price war. This is when are next recession will come. As long as these dodo brains keep looking for inflation it still early. Do not forget in Japan and The US in the 20's it was DEFLATION that was so devestating after great Techno-booms. In this type of enviroment would YOU want Consumer Cyclicals, Retail, Financials? NO YOU WANT TECH. Thats the arms supplier to all to club each other to death. The servers, Dark fiber, high speed Data that will allow these companies to become so effient that we will have a deflationary recession. I would also say Bonds will soon be a great buy because in the next three years rates will be closer to 3% then 7%. JMHO I have had a portfolio of 99% tech for 3 years now and every year the same nonsence. I would also point out that the year NAZ had a 54% move was 1995 and obviously that was just the beginning of the PC boom. Now we have the Wireless boom. I think we are sitting in the heart with QCOM. I think NOK< ERICY, SAWS and even MOT will all be huge. I also think InFRA internet like MFNX` GLBX, JDSU, EXDS will also be huge. As for the Yahoo's and AOL's I find them over rated.
