Analysis by Russian Defector: Y2K Bug Forced Yeltsin Out
NewsMax.com
December 31, 1999
Colonel Stanislav Lunev, the highest-ranking military spy to ever
defect from Russia, writes an exclusive column for NewsMax.com on Russia,
military/espionage matters and foreign policy.
Col. Lunev offered his immediate analysis of the breaking news story
that President Yeltsin had resigned effective today, handing the Russian
presidency to his Prime Minister, Vladmir Putin.
Here are Col. Lunev's Key Points:
Y2K Bug: Last week, key members of Yelstin's inner circle - his family,
money backers and political entourage - had a meeting. During the meeting,
these members, referred to in mafia language as Yeltsin's "family," were, no
doubt, informed about the disaster the Y2K computer problem may hold for
Russia.
The family knows that Yeltsin is out of his mind, and has little
support in the Russian military. There are fears and concerns of an
accidental nuclear war. This is why the U.S. and Russia have sent top-level
officers to each others military and nuclear command posts. The family knows
that Yeltsin would be unable to handle a crisis involving nuclear weapons and
that he would have to be removed, or risk removal by the Russian military.
There will be economic and social disruptions because of Y2K. Yeltsin's
family has gotten something of a victory in the Parliamentary elections, and
they feel Yeltsin needs to exit before Y2K erupts. Otherwise he risks the
wrath and blame of the Russian people if disaster strikes.
Putin: Putin is first and foremost a KGB man. After graduating from
Leningrad University, he was shipped to East Germany as an intelligence
officer. He was not a good intelligence officer, so he was sent back to
Russia and was reassigned to counter-intelligence. After the fall of the
U.S.S.R., Putin was assigned by the KGB to work with a rising political star,
Anitoliy Sobchak, who went on to become mayor of Leningrad, renamed St.
Petersburg. Putin became Sobchak's right-hand man and gained the notice of
Yeltsin and the family.
Putin was brought into the Yeltsin government, and made head of the
Federal Security Service, the successor agency to the KGB. When Yeltsin
sacked Primakov as prime minister, the family turned to Putin. It is widely
believed that Putin has promised the family that Yeltsin will not be
prosecuted after he leaves office. At the same time the family is said to
have incriminating evidence on Putin.
Putin and the future Russia: Putin is an extremely cold-blooded
individual. His nickname is "Andropov Jr." -- after the former head of the
KGB, Yuri Andropov. Andropov, who died as general secretary of the communist
party, was known as one of the most sinister and cunning men in the Soviet
hierarchy.
Already Putin has shown with his political and ruthless war in Chechnya
that he is willing to sacrifice blood to fulfill his ambitions. He is a hawk.
In recent months he has announced a massive increase in the Russian military
budget -- by more than 50 percent. He also has returned Russia's nuclear
forces to a Cold War footing. More ICBM's have been deployed and test-fired
in the past 6 months than in any period since the end of the U.S.S.R.
Putin will show his military muscle to the world. He is aggressive and
dangerous. He will do anything to reach his targets.
Yeltsin's Out, Putin's In, but What's Up?
NewsMax.com
December 31, 1999
Begging the Russian people's forgiveness for failing their hopes and
dreams, Boris Yeltsin abruptly resigned as their president on the final day
of this millennium.
Succeeding him as interim president is Prime Minister Valdimir Putin,
who was caught by surprise, hastily canceling a trip to St. Petersburg in
order to confer in Moscow with other Kremlin officials.
All across the confusing spectrum of Russian political parties,
factional leaders were scurrying to position themselves and their followers
in the unexpected elections required by the constitution now to take place
within 90 days rather than in June as scheduled.
Given the volatile state of Russia's politics, economics and military
activities, this could well trigger off a major crisis.
Yeltsin went on nationwide television to stun his people with the blunt
statement, "Today, on the last day of the outgoing century, I resign."
He appeared wan and severe as he did what no previous Russian leader
has done: He admitted error and sought absolution.
"I want to beg forgiveness for your dreams that never came true," he
told an astonished nation. "And also I would like to beg forgiveness not to
have justified your hopes.
"I am stepping down ahead of term. I understand that I must do it and
Russia must enter the new millennium with new politicians, with new faces,
with new intelligent, strong, energetic people, and we who have been in power
for many years must go."
There was no point in his hanging around for another half of a year,
Yeltsin said, because Putin had proved himself capable of doing the job.
"I shouldn't be in the way of the natural course of history," Yeltsin
said. "To cling to power for another six months when the country has a strong
person worthy of becoming president - why should I stand in his way? Why
should I wait? It's not in my character."
And he expressed confidence that Russia would emerge as a modern and
democratic great power, never to revert to the ways of its totalitarian past.
It was no secret that Yeltsin, his health failing and his grip on the
government questioned day by day, had been engineering Putin into position to
succeed him and ensure the continued reign of his "Family" of close
supporters.
Many of them, including Yeltsin's own daughter, are under investigation
for corruption by prosecutors in Moscow and Switzerland.
Putin has been the chief architect and most prominent prosecutor of the
highly popular war in Chechnya to restore Russian control over that breakaway
province in the Caucasus.
In recent parliamentary elections, centrist parties backing Putin's
open candidacy for president and supporting present Kremlin policies, fared
better than expected.
Helping to orchestrate that victory - which gave the president probably
his best window of opportunity to bow out and provide Putin an extra boost -
has been Yeltsin's increased aggressive posture toward the United States.
Yeltsin and military leaders troubled by Russia's demise as a
superpower have been infuriated by:
. America's encouragement of expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization membership of states to the very doorstep of Mother Russia,
. The U.S.-led NATO bombing of Kosovo, which the Kremlin perceived as
another threat on its borders,
. President Clinton's announced intention to create a missile-defense
system even if it means revising or junking the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty, which Russia has looked upon for decades as its only real defense
against a preemptory nuclear first strike by the United States, and
. Clinton's criticism of Russia's Chechen war.
In recent weeks Russia under Yeltsin and Putin has made several ominous
military moves, all clearly intended to send stern messages of warning to the
United States and, at the same time, shore up political support at home:
. Yeltsin went to Beijing, where he solidified Russia's political and
military ties with Communist China,
. While there, Yeltsin publicly rebuked Clinton, telling him in effect
to butt out of Russia's business,
. Soon after Yeltsin returned to Moscow, Putin make a big public show
of attending the launch of Russia's state-of-the-art Topol-M nuclear
intercontinental ballistic missile, which its military has trumpeted as being
capable of penetrating any missile shield Clinton can construct.
Almost immediately after that, Yeltsin placed on "red alert" Russia's
ICBMs capable of reaching America.
Even with a heart attack and other ailments, which are widely believed
to include alcoholism, Yeltsin at 68 has been remarkably resilient
politically.
He kept everyone off guard by appointing, then firing, four prime
ministers within the past two years.
In May, he beat back a Communist-led effort to impeach him.
There have been hopes at the State Department that whenever Yeltsin did
move off the scene, he would be succeeded by someone more stable and willing
to work with the United States.
That someone was not Valdimir Putin, the former head of the Russian
secret police. |
