To: Sector Investor who wrote (17891 ) 1/3/2000 8:20:00 AM From: James Calladine Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
EVERYBODY: FROM BRIEFING (was this mentioned before?)Note the company we are now keeping! <<Parting Thoughts 31-Dec-99 03:11 ET [BRIEFING.COM - Robert Walberg] Before we pop the champagne and toast to the new year/millennium, let's take a few minutes to reflect on the past year. Barring an unexpected disaster, the Y2K bug will go down as one of the biggest non-events in market history. Despite proclamations of doom, the market soared to new heights in the most active trading in history. Hard to believe so many people could get the call wrong, but they did. Hats off to corporate America/the US Government for being adequately prepared. Bet anything the Puma shoe people wish their stock performed like Puma Tech (PUMA) the software maker... Stock up nearly 3000% year-to-date.... PUMA just one of the many amazing stock stories of 1999... Qualcomm (QCOM), Commerce One (CMRC), Free Markets (FMKT), Yahoo! (YHOO), BroadVision (BVSN), JDS/Uniphase (JDSU), Red Hat (RHAT), VoiceStream (VSTR), Metricom (MCOM), MRV Communications (MRVC), VA Linux (LNUX), Brocade (BRCD), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Akamai (AKAM)... The list of huge winners just goes on and on... We've never seen a year 12-month period like it in all of our years, and we doubt we will see another one like it again. Many of the stocks noted above came public in 1999, which tells you what kind of year it was for the IPO market... Briefing.com remembers when the year began most market experts proclaimed that 1998's torrid IPO pace would have to slow... Wrong! Explosive growth in the Net and wireless arenas triggered a record number of new offerings with many of the stocks posting triple-digit opening day gains. M&A activity was also much greater than most anyone expected... Not only did we see a record number of deals, but the size of the deals was huge... MCI/Worldcom's $1000 bln plus deal was the granddaddy of them all... At least until Vodafone's hostile bid for Mannesmann of $143 bln goes through... Much of the deal making this year was in the tech industry, particularly the telecommunications arena... With the recent repeal of Glass-Steagall, look for financial sector to be among the most active M&A breeding grounds in 2000. The Nasdaq set a record for any major market index, gaining nearly 80% for the year... 80%! Meanwhile, the DJIA jumped another 25% and the S&P 500 rose by roughly 19%... Again, you would have been hard pressed to find many on the street predicting such lofty gains when the year began... No way do we expect the Nasdaq to repeat its performance in the year ahead, but considering that the leading companies in most of the leading growth industries are found on the Nasdaq, Briefing.com contends that the index will do another 25%+ in 2000. What makes the above gains even more spectacular is that they occurred against the backdrop of rising interest rates... It was a horrible year for the bond market, as inflation fears sent the long-bond yield to the 6.5% area... Given the runaway US economy, Fed likely to raise rates again in the months to come... Will 7% spook stock traders? Not when they're getting 20%, 30%, 40% in stocks. Aside from the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire, no one much cares about the Presidential campaign at this point... The lack of interest is a testament to the economy's strength... Traders unlikely to concern themselves much with the election unless VP Gore starts moving ahead... Of the four major candidates, VP Gore is Wall Street's least favorite. Airline, drug, consumer, housing and retail stocks generally suffered through a difficult year... With value having been created in these areas, and comparison periods offering hopes of upside earnings surprises in 2000, look for a number of these groups to stage impressive recovery rallies in the months to come. But if there is one thing to take from the stock market of 1999 it is that momentum rules... So while value should have a place in your portfolio, the high growth/momentum plays are likely to outperform again in 2000. >> Best wishes, Jim