To: Gabriel008 who wrote (150124 ) 1/2/2000 11:23:00 PM From: JRI Respond to of 176387
Hi G....yeah, my experience has been that when the futures are down this hard (-40)....that the next day's action is usually not so good.....were it only been -20, -25....a little less intimidating for all...having said that, we all know they (futures) are lightly traded and easily manipulated....and perhaps it is better that the market(s) take the seller's biggest punch in the first few days...for a lot of money on the sidelines in the beginning of the month...should be buying on any dips...if the market goes down significantly in the first few days...it will go down kicking and screaming, IMO.... I am a little surprised at the early election results, however, for I thought that those selling for tax reasons (deferring tax 'til New Year- negative for market)....vs. bonus/pension money-positive for market... would cancel each out....or at the worse case scenario, not allow for a big negative....also on the positive side, there MUST be some money (although I can't imagine as much as many earlier anticipated)......given the huge run in the Naz the past month)..there MUST be some money on the sideline still due to Y2K...that will be put back to work...so, in my thinking, that leads to an overall positive in the market in the beginning of the month......UNTIL everyone starts getting worried (again) about the Fed...which I thought would not happen 'til middle of the month (earliest)....that my best skinny.... The market told us in December that Y2K was going to be no big deal...and the market is very good at getting such "big picture" things right (before anyone else)....still, it would appear illogical that a huge amount of people (even including those selling for tax reasons) would hold THRU Y2K..and then sell immediately after...given it seems certain that things have gone BETTER than expected.... Even though we're down hard, I remain ever the optimist...just checked again, only down -29.....I'll wear my rally cap to bed tonight.....Glad you guys got to keep your Expos....even if it took a New Yorker to bail you out <G>..Does Donald Sutherland still go to the games?