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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (84766)	1/3/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572141

Re: I believe SB said AMD could produce 12.5 million. They still have to find buyers... Hi Elmer, SSB is being very careful - after all, this is AMD we're talking about. They even estimated flash at 230 after being flat out told it was going to be 250. Here's a possible scenario for AMD in Y2K: Millions of units: T Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 K7 2 4 6 8 K6 5 4 2 0 K7 ASP $150 K6 ASP $60 Costs: .9B 1.0B 1.1B 1.2B Flash Sales $1.5B Com and Misc $0.5B Earnings: $1.4B EPS for Y2K: $9.30 Stock price: $280 Regards, Dan

To: Elmer who wrote (84766)	1/3/2000 12:24:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1572141

Hi fudd: As stated previously, my estimate of $5 billion in Y2000 revenues (almost 100% increase over 1999) is predicated upon shipments of 10 million Athlons. If they produce 12.5 million, my bet is that it is a fairly safe assumption that the buyers will be lined up for 10 million at the minimum. Actually, given the production problems associated with the fatigue currently being experienced by architectures of AMD's competitors, it is a very real possibility that Y2000 demand for Athlons will exceed 12.5 million!