To: clochard who wrote (82022 ) 1/3/2000 1:27:00 PM From: Ken98 Respond to of 86076
This one is probably on the way out too <ng>: <<Y2K: Economist Yardeni concedes Y2K-related recession unlikely By Edward Kean, Bridge News Washington--Jan 3--Deutsche Bank Alex Brown securities economist Edward Yardeni, who had received considerable attention for his controversial warnings about potential economic troubles from the year 2000 computer bug, said Monday a recession looks unlikely if the Y2K transition continues to proceed in an orderly fashion. * * * If the next few days remain relatively smooth, "you'll be able to read my lips, I'll say I was wrong," Yardeni said in a telephone conference call. While cautioning that "we're not of the woods yet," Yardeni acknowledged that the Y2K transition so far has been "fabulous." "I'm very well impressed with how well things have gone, particularly in the overseas economies," he said. For the most part, fears of massive computer breakdowns from Y2K have not come to pass, with most glitches thus far being reported as minor. Yardeni had raised alarm bells about potential economic problems from the year 2000 computer bug several years ago. Yardeni said he was concerned about disruptions to "global supply chain," such as telecommunications systems, from Y2K-related problems. As recently as mid-December, Yardeni was predicting a steep drop in real economic growth in the first half of this year. In retrospect, Yardeni said MOnday he did not regret raising concerns about the Y2K issue and said that while he may spent too much time being a contrarian, "I think one aspect of my job is to some contrary thinking." Yardeni did raise concerns Monday that the stock market may be vulnerable, since the 30-year Treasury bond yield has climbed above 6.50%. The stock market looks "quite overpriced" based on traditional models, he said. He said booming technology stocks may finally buckle if the 30-year bond yield rises to near 7% and the Fed tightens. End>>