To: cfimx who wrote (25603 ) 1/3/2000 8:33:00 PM From: High-Tech East Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
hey twit - long time no hear It has been a wonderful ride for my wife Jan & I with Sun Microsytems since May, 1997. Today, I sold the last 4,000 shares of what were a total of 7,360. (Our dollar averaged split adjusted price was just north of $11). Thanks for your help in making all that cash in our SEP/IRA and IRA accounts. <ggg> It's not that I believe any less in Sun Microsystems. I will buy a bunch again, and who knows, I may have to pay a real premium to get it back. Sun is a real kick-ass company and I do not see any real clouds on the horizon.but the valuations on tech stocks in general tells me that we are do for a serious correction - 30% plus, I think ... and Sun could get hammered with an 80 plus P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months. I believe that Sun will make or exceed their numbers for Q2FY00, and for many more consecutive quarters to come. I scares me to try to time the market, but I am going to try anyhow. I know I can not sell at the top, but I really do not want to give back much of our gains either. What tipped the balance for me were some daily charts I started in January, 1997. I converted a bunch of indexes into DJIA equivalent points, and have plotted them every day since then on that adjusted basis. As of 12/31/99, here are the numbers ... (not pure science, I know) ... ..... all in DJIA equivalent points (except for the Dow, obviously) Dow Jones Industrial Average ... ... 11,497 points New York Stock Exchange Composite Index ... ... 10,418 points Standard & Poor 500 Index ... ... 12,605 points Russell 2000 ... ... 8,706 points Nasdaq Composite Index ... ... 20,373 points Nasdaq Computer Index ... ... 28,391 points If you think that is scary, you should see the graphs. Another factor is the FED. The new FED board is sure to be more aggressive on interest rates with some new members known to be more hawkish on inflation. That is of some concern to me. For now, we will sit on a bunch of cash and carefully watch our 5,000 shares we have in Abiomed Inc. They will probably start clinical trials of their "total artificial heart" in human patients sometime this year. This is very high risk for us, but the possible gains ............... I am also making a career change out of executive search (after more than 20 years in technical recruiting) and into equity research for a not yet determined brokerage house or financial services firm, probably in the next 6 months. Happy New Year 'twit' and to all the rest of the Sun bulls. ... go Scotty. Ken Wilson aka High-Tech East