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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdrjr who wrote (57819)	1/4/2000 8:45:00 AM
From: hdrjr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Alert: Cross Timbers Says Bids to be Excepted in Mid-february (NYSE:XTO, mergers) What does this mean, merger or part of property sale? biz.yahoo.com

To: hdrjr who wrote (57819)	1/4/2000 10:20:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

XTO - has to be atop the BUY "Watch Lists" here... buying EOG NBL UPR this am re: XTO - I am allready loaded $8 1/4ish of late but his is a must own here imo: <<The Company's strategic goals for year 2000 announced in August 1999 remain unchanged: Cash flow from operations of $4.00 per share Proved reserves of 40 Mcfe per share Debt of $.40 per Mcfe, and To be ranked among the top 10 U.S. independents based on domestic reserves>> Has dipped to $8 1/4ish of late = 2.06 x est 2000 cfps; few better values in the patch imho. Waiting with both barrels loaded for a break of $8 - will become my #1 holding - margining At $7 5/8, then $6 7/8 if seen - and as low as they want to take her. The hedges are a positive in my mind & certainly put a "bottom" in "fundamentally" for XTO. Oil AND Gas prices and earnings, cash flow are at levels supporting 2-3-5 year highs potentially for these stocks on a fundamental basis; but yet stocks like NBL are near 5 year lows ?!?!?!? - this is the definition of a market "ANOMALY" - this is how one makes the "BIG" money in the market imho... we only need "momenteum & sentiment" to change (and they WILL, sooner, or later) - the fundamentals for the E&P's are allready in place - re: XTO. If crude sells off simultaneous to the NASDQ holding 4000; we re-visit the OSX 68-72 range very quickly imho. Last Jan, we had a short blow off - then a Rally. We need rate hikes & DOW/NASDQ profit taking to get the momenteum money back in the patch. Without momenteum money - we waffle. The Energy Funds are allready in here - only a little new mutual fund money is going to give us a bit of a pop, but we need sector rotation to occur before we go anywhere fast. A Nat Gas rally, or a bounce in crude over OPEC announcing the postponing of the March meeting and the extension of present cuts should rally crude after we get the next 2 weeks of API's over with - as they may show little drawdown due to pre-Y2K builds. But, if we show strong draws against what the Street has said were strong Y2K stock builds earlier - then $30 crude is a given... and we should see some buying. API's over the next 2-3 weeks will be difficult to predict - but the good news is the trend is strongly down - once we work out the Y2K build - this will give some artificially cheap buying opps in both E&P's & the OSX stocks, so keeping some powder dry here is prudent. I look for us to see another spring like last year - couple of pops, selloffs - then once the API draws settle back in - once OPEC announces extension of cuts, once the Fed hikes, or the market retraces ; we EXPLODE in another 40% - 6 week type of coiled spring move... maybe late Feb- March during the OPEC meeting/non meeting announcement ? If your're trading - definitely be watching the Crude Oil & the Nat Gas Price tape, be prepared for a return back to OSX 68-72 if the NASDQ keeps its "MO" & Crude retraces and the warm weather keeps downward pressure on Nat Gas prices. No reason to buy driller service stocks unless they return to prior support levels imo; because if we see crude & gas retrace here, or bad APIU #'s we are 3:1 going to see OSX 68-72 very quick imho... Marc's technical calls are following the short term "Sentiment" catalysts - where the possible news/catalyst results are looking 60:40 negative imho, right now... as the "odds" are that the API's will not be positive here due to Y2K builds, crude is retracing - won't bounce untill the Y2K builds are out of the API system and we return to strong drawdowns & we need cold weather to keep Nat Gas over $2.30 - a break under $2.30 looks realistic here, even though this is a historically high NG price; we will be treated very negatively by the Street... more danger signs than positives nearterm; but the good news is we get another shot at $14ish EOG, $19 NBL, $11 UPR, PXD in the $7's, OEI in the $6's etc... maybe FLC in the $10's, mid teens ESV/RDC, $24-6ish RIG ?, CAM WFT SII - a chance to re-enter these mo-mo fav's again $3-$5 cheaper ? ... all in all; keep the margin/powder dry, or enter gradually here imho; we are more likely than not - going to get some great buying opps here - if only because of the spin doctoring on crude's retrace and the potential of flat API draw #'s. But - this IS - a tremendous buying opp - just not one to be chasing 1/4's down here - I bought EOG NBL UPR this am - but am lowering my next buys down 7.5% from here - give yourself adequate gaps between entries here and do buy in "waves" - 2-3 buy ins. E&P's like EOG NBL near 52 week lows - NBL a 5 year low, I am starting margin on these 2 & UPR, just a bit however - but I am saving most of my margin for OSX stocks because I see OSX 68-72 levels real quick perhaps - and that is where support will be found - not here... ... and keep in mind, that Merrill, SSB, Pru etc have all commented on driller service stocks - disappointing here with little potential for many upside surprises, good news unfolding in this qtrs reporting and are actually predicting some misses - calling this qtr the "trough" for driller'service stocks - unlike the E&P's which will show huge qtr over qtr & year over year improvement - I think you can buy the E&P's today - and sit 7.5-10% for the next big/final margin buy if seen; but the OSX is going to re-visit 68-70ish intra-day during the next couple of weeks imho, unless those API's pull a real doozie out of the hat tonight...or, next week. Time to stay on the porch if you can't run with the Big, or Bad Dogs here - be carefull... C'Mon EOG - give me the $13's pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze, $18 1/2 NBL - & its "Call - City"...