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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (17781)	1/4/2000 9:26:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 57584

Carpe and all. . . . . . . . . . . On Current Volatility. . . . . . . . There is still no fear in the markets. .. . .we are still getting an influx of new investors and large amounts of new money. And this new large money would prefer to get in lower. . . .so it is my contention that this whole thing is contrived by brokerages. . . in order to get their biggest customers in at a decent price. . . So what happened so far? EVERYBODY expected a strong open yesterday. . . . but the gap ups were ridiculous. . . why? Because it was a big head fake. . . instantly upon opening stocks were ripped from their perches. . . if you bought there, you were a loser. . . then the tumble became excessive. . . taking prices of some high fliers to lows that hadn't been seen in weeks. . . if you sold their in panic. . .you were a loser. . . .but the big money got in low. . . . get it? Prices rebounded to fair territory. . . but today there is a new supply of big money wanting in cheap. So the SPOOS is painted lower . . .and there will probably be a brief selloff at open. . .so new big money investors can get in cheap. . . then it will take all day for older investors to re-build strength in issues. . . bringing the prices back to fair territory once again. Now "yesterday we had the most volatile day in Nasdaq history" [just quoted from CNBC]. . . we saw Naz open up 120 points. . .then run down nearly 200 points before ending near where it began. Has anything changed since yesterday? Doubtful. . . . so I expect similar volatility. Now. . . remember that losers sell the lows and buy the highs. We need to sell our highs more readily and buy the lows more often. .. . by selling the highs, it frees up funds for buying lows. Do you know how often the markets rally north with zero resistance and end at a fantastic price? Very very very very seldom. . . . .so if anyone is expecting their stock to go to the moon each day they trade. . .then you will be waiting a long long time. Stocks make their gains over time. . . up and down and up higher and down higher [higher lows] and up higher yet and down higher yet. . . and once in a while the trading range breaks. . .as in current volatility. . . but the fundamentals don't change. We are still in a great economy. Investors are less and less concerned about interest rates and are more concerned with the growth of the internet. So you must ask yourself WHY did futures close so low? Was it caused by foreign markets? Nope. Was it caused by interest rate pressures? Bears say yes. . .bulls say doubtful. . . .is their a flight to quality? Not with the Nasdaq ending so much higher yesterday, while the Dow ended way low. . . that is hardly representative of a flight to quality. . . and as for a flight to 6.5% bond yields. . . you have to ask yourself. . .are you really tempted by this? Who is? Anyone you know? If so, then perhaps it is true. . . but I certainly don't hear anyone talking about selling their tech stocks and running to 6.5% bonds. No way. So what are we left with. . . . the bears instilling fear over time . . over and over and over. . . ."Fed will raise rates". . ."valuations are too high" . . ." Greenspan won't stand for it" . . ."Fed will raise rates". . . I heard a guy this am on Bloomberg saying "Fed will raise 50 basis points" . . . he was an admitted bear suggesting we short the market. I don't think it will happen. I believe we will see this volatility. . .wash and rinsing those profits out of our hands. Regardless of whether the markets follow through and we get a real sell-off. . . or not. . . we need to play this volatility like a surfer on Waikiki. . . Either that or we need to stand pat with the hands we dealt ourselves. I plan on doing a little bit of both. . . I will buy some bottoms. . .sell some tops. . . and stand firm on the rest. . . meanwhile. . .pleying a bit more aggressive on swing trades to make up the difference. Rande Is