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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3050)	1/4/2000 9:48:00 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 3646

Dear Joel: Your disappointment is understood and shared by many of us I am sure. Wouldnt have been so bad if they hadnt allowed us to get our hopes raised perhaps too early. Same as last time. I just hope that in the long run they are telling us the truth about the potential of Windchill and ecommerce. JDN

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3050)	1/4/2000 9:50:00 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3646

Product transitions are hard to manage. I've been through a tough one with Cabletron over the past two years. There are a lot of false starts, a lot of disappointments. Two years ago I was at the CS meeting listening to then-CEO Craig Benson talking about where the company was going. Well, it went there, but in between then and now, the stock made a couple round trips from 15 to 7; I lost patience and faith and sold half at the absolute bottom. One new CEO later, the company looks to be back on track. That may be what it will take with PMTC, though I think Walske is still pretty highly regarded. At least the Boston Globe picked him as one of the top local execs of the decade. The worst thing about turnarounds based on product transitions is that there are no guarantees. If this were just a matter of rationalizing operations, or waiting for the market to turn, it would be a different story...

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3050)	1/4/2000 10:09:00 AM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3646

Let's try to be clear-headed here. Although the company didn't give us much to chew on, it's a fair bet that the shortfall emanates from large deal slippage (which we knew was a possibility), what may have been too much focus on Windchill, all the shifting around of the sales force, and maybe some Y2K effects--despite what the company told analysts on the conference call and at the meeting. Obviously, although Windchill is exciting and marks the future of the company, Pro/E is the base business and, even using the projections form the conference call, will still represent two and a half times those of Windchill. The company has to pay more attention to its bread and butter simply to fund Windchill's potential. This is a fact. Estimates have to come down for fiscal 2000, no doubt about it. Before the earnings release and conference call, it's difficult to put together a good model and come up with an estimate; but someplace between 70 cents and 80 cents looks likely. Although the stock looks messy until the company can really show that Pro/E has stabilized, an eventual target price of at least $25 looks achievable based on a multiple of 20 times Windchill revenues and 2.5 times Pro/E revenues. These are the multiples for similar businesses' stocks.