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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2357)	1/4/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Respond to of 3536

Regarding the Euro, while I am bullish in the intermediate-term, I personally am not highly-confident in the Euro or any other major currency for that matter right now - the Euro and Yen may squash the Dollar and the Yen may squash the Euro, or the Yen may itself fall back into the abyss...the picture here is too ambiguous and I am sitting on the sidelines. The best performing currencies will likely be minor SE Asian ones. My only gut feeling is that any Euro strength will mean even greater Yen strength, both vs. the Euro and the Dollar. Paul

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2357)	1/4/2000 11:04:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi Robert, I hope you heat up the discussion on the Euro and Europe. You may have noticed from an earlier quote to go long the Euro seemed logical to me. I can not believe I am saying this but currently Europe seems the most stable and therefore most safe investment area. In addition, the need for investment should enable reasonable ROI. With my own money I am finding it hard to commit much to anything at the moment. I feel a bit out of sync with the economic waves and find it hard to have sufficient conviction to take positions. Hence I hope for the discussion. Maybe you folks can knock some sense in me. In the meantime I find cash (not invested) to be one of the more brave moves, even if driven by ambivalence Cheers, Lee

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2357)	1/5/2000 3:30:00 PM
From: N	Respond to of 3536

Hi Robert... I tried to look at net positions of commitments of traders in financial instruments here cftc.gov but the report isn't ready yet. - - Dec 18 economist reports M3 grew at annual rate of 15% as fed was preparing for Y2K...and "...relaxed standards of collateral banks must deposit to get cash...sold banks billions...of 'liquidity options' which allows buyers borrow at ...a set spread over the ff rate...." A nice direct impact on $/euro...I bet. I would be interested in what you, Henry,Lee, Paul and others have to say about this. Especially interested, Henry, in your analysis of the success and importance of the options...had been awed by this for awhile. By the way, aren't we about ready to have trade deficit with Japan and $/yen just about ready to work out....up the J curve? Comments? Nancy

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2357)	1/8/2000 12:17:00 PM
From: N	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Robert, here are the commitment of traders reports for the last couple of weeks. Non-commercial [speculators] money is predominantly short, the short term t-bills and bonds; long 3 month eurodollars and 1-month libor rate. cftc.gov * * * * * * * From the merc: 13-WEEK U.S. TREASURY BILLS - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/28/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 3,278 COMMITMENTS 175 2,369 0 2,423 650 2,598 3,019 680 259 CHANGES FROM 12/21/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 405) -204 418 0 782 0 578 418 -173 -13 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 5.3 72.3 0.0 73.9 19.8 79.3 92.1 20.7 7.9 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 10) 1 4 0 4 1 5 5 13-WEEK U.S. TREASURY BILLS - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 2,873 COMMITMENTS 379 1,951 0 1,641 650 2,020 2,601 853 272 CHANGES FROM 12/14/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,231) 204 586 0 794 650 998 1,236 233 -5 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 13.2 67.9 0.0 57.1 22.6 70.3 90.5 29.7 9.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 8) 2 3 0 2 1 4 4 1-MONTH LIBOR RATE - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/28/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $3,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 26,299 COMMITMENTS 4,858 553 1,206 18,558 22,345 24,622 24,104 1,677 2,195 CHANGES FROM 12/21/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 221) 1,047 -155 -501 -362 790 184 134 37 87 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 18.5 2.1 4.6 70.6 85.0 93.6 91.7 6.4 8.3 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 49) 6 3 4 26 27 33 33 1-MONTH LIBOR RATE - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $3,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 26,078 COMMITMENTS 3,811 708 1,707 18,920 21,555 24,438 23,970 1,640 2,108 CHANGES FROM 12/14/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 2,815) 1,243 -1,427 445 863 4,016 2,551 3,034 264 -219 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 14.6 2.7 6.5 72.6 82.7 93.7 91.9 6.3 8.1 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 52) 6 5 5 25 28 33 36 3-MONTH EURODOLLARS - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/28/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 3,436,723 COMMITMENTS 272,580 156,924 491,346 2361470 2335768 3125397 2984039 311,326 452,684 CHANGES FROM 12/21/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 27,163) 838 769 4,633 36,919 31,564 42,391 36,966 -15,228 -9,804 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 7.9 4.6 14.3 68.7 68.0 90.9 86.8 9.1 13.2 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 266) 40 48 56 158 162 228 240 3-MONTH EURODOLLARS - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY MARKET REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 3,409,561 COMMITMENTS 271,742 156,156 486,713 2324551 2304204 3083006 2947073 326,554 462,488 CHANGES FROM 12/14/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 180,013) 10,638 66,977 43,321 142,037 90,811 195,995 201,109 -15,983 -21,097 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 8.0 4.6 14.3 68.2 67.6 90.4 86.4 9.6 13.6 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 263) 40 49 58 155 158 225 239 from the board of trade U.S. TREASURY BONDS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/28/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $100,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 690,943 COMMITMENTS 43,576 76,470 45,421 510,510 486,780 599,507 608,671 91,437 82,272 CHANGES FROM 12/21/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 8,801) 552 -2,980 2,723 4,580 10,066 7,855 9,809 945 -1,008 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 6.3 11.1 6.6 73.9 70.5 86.8 88.1 13.2 11.9 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 266) 45 54 51 125 132 201 206 U.S. TREASURY BONDS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/99 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $100,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 682,142 COMMITMENTS 43,023 79,450 42,698 505,930 476,714 591,651 598,862 90,491 83,281 CHANGES FROM 12/14/99 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 725) -10,088 16,303 1,305 28,922 4,901 20,140 22,510 -19,414 -21,784 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 6.3 11.6 6.3 74.2 69.9 86.7 87.8 13.3 12.2 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 257) 42 51 46 119 131 189 200