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To: Voltaire who wrote (59353)1/4/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
 
Volaire, since you are convinced that the Houses play with the price, do you have a 'canned' position on the volume traded? Is the moving average volume close to what the houses maintain to manipulate over a given time frame? Do they maintain sufficient shares to react to a 'blow out' volume day? Todays vol shows as ~5x of the recent 'normal' volume. Is some of the volatility pinned to the Houses scrambling to balance to the increased volume?

Thanks for the thoughts, might help keep some people's eyes off the ticker for a spell.

Jeff Vayda



To: Voltaire who wrote (59353)1/4/2000 3:13:00 PM
From: Jenne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
The Anatomy of the Selloff
By James J. Cramer

1/4/00 2:45 PM ET



Click here for the latest filings from James J. Cramer.

So what is the anatomy of this selloff? Let me give you the operative theories I have heard with my judgment of credibility attached.

1. There is a large institution buying bonds and selling stocks through futures, both S&P and NDX. Makes sense as bonds are screaming (rates going lower) and the futures have been for sale huge. The problem with this kind of info, though, is you never know when it ends, and it can always be right!

2. Individuals are heavily invested here, too heavily invested, and people fear that another down day will breed margin selling, and they are trying to get out ahead of that. Certainly possible because there was so much liquidity pumped into the system, and some of it clearly found its way into the NDX!

3. Someone or some funds marked up this whole market with purchases to try to make good numbers to show investors. I like this one a lot because it seems like there are giant air pockets right under most stocks, extending down to where they were before the final liftoff of 1999. This is a cynical, some would say conspiratorial, judgment, but it is one that makes sense given the collapse we are seeing today.


Join the discussion on TSC Message Boards.

Markets are big. It would not shock me if some form of all three of these is playing havoc today. I will keep digging to find out.