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Biotech / Medical : CYPB - Cypress BioScience -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BRAVEHEART who wrote (532)	2/12/2000 3:04:00 AM
From: tuck	Respond to of 586

Jeffrey & Thread, Wondering how far this could go and what was a good target for CYPB, I began to do some casual digging, and found a few interesting items. I may be reinventing the wheel here, but I have not seen an attempt on this thread at valuing the company. Apologies if I've referenced stuff everyone's seen and digested. This maybe responsible for some of the action of late: arthritis.org Note that Prosorba therapy is the most costly option. I found a figure for the number of patients in the total RA population in CYPB's markets on the company web site: "Rheumatoid Arthritis is a chronic, often debilitating auto-immune disease in which the body's immune system attacks its own tissue, which can lead to painful inflammation and deformity of the joints. The disease affects more than 2 1/2 million Americans, 70% of them women, most between the ages of 25 and 60. The PROSORBA is targeted toward the over 250,000 patients with the most serious form of the disease." This does not include CYPB's international markets, but a ball park figure could be inferred with a little more digging. Enbrel, though costly, is ~30% cheaper than Prosorba and is in some cases insured. The docs in the above article seem impressed with it, and additional reports of joint protection have recently been announced at a conference. So Prosorba has some competition in its market that will limit its penetration of it. The question is, what is that penetration rate and what will it be? I think we can get clues from revenue data and projections. Folks, we have enough info to take a stab at valuation, if we care to make the effort. I nibbled already at 2 5/8 a couple of days ago based on thin DD, because of TA, insider buying, ramping volume and diminishing float. I might try to gather up the numbers and run them, try to come up with a fundamental target. Not right now, though, with the after effects of Friday evening setting in. But what of today's volume spike? Could this article have hit the Street consciousness so recently? I doubt it. It does look like a possible pump starting. Thanks, Jeffrey for bringing this one to my attention. Maybe you and I and other threadsters can figure out the price at which the dump will start. What do you say? Cheers, Tuck