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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (36635)	1/4/2000 6:03:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Good post. Yes I believe the selling is overdone. But hard to predict the exact timing of the upward rebound. Might be as early as tomorrow morning. In many cases the selling reached irrational proportions (ignoring great news and earnings). Short covering could add to the violence of the rebound. Plenty of money on the sidelines to fuel a whopper of a rally over the next few days or weeks. Then we are back in earnings season and that should mute anything the Fed does. Besides, today's sell-off more than priced in any hike. So I feel comfortable holding and buying from here. (having loaded up already today at or near 52 week lows for most purchases).

To: KM who wrote (36635)	1/4/2000 6:25:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Truff, they forgot to mention that total OEX options volume has been scraping along record lows lately (haven't seen today's numbers yet). at the same time the overall CBOE p/c ratio has been near record lows for several weeks. outstanding call contracts have simply exploded, to levels about 50% higher than the '98 average and it has all happened in the fourth quarter. that's excessive...it's not the type of excess that is done away with in one day's decline. i also tend to think we'll see a bounce first before more selling, but i'm still looking for more downside before this is over. fear in this market? not likely - at least not yet. we just come from some of the most euphoric sentiment readings in recent history. fear looks different. regards, hb