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To: fedhead who wrote (1174)	1/4/2000 6:43:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

Anindo, re gold stocks, here's the list of my picks: Message 12462852 with regards to oil and rising rates, in theory rising rates should be bad for commodities like oil...not if inflation really takes off though. of course, the oil market has it's own dynamics, but i do think OPEC has learned it's lesson w/regards to controlling supply. that leaves the demand question. nowadays it perversely all depends on the stock market, in a kind of tail wags dog scenario. a sharp downdraft in the stock market could dent the demand side of the oil equation by slowing down the economic expansion(and recovery in Asia). however, in the long term i am rather bullish on oil and commodities in general. the largest western oil fields are slowly but surely subject to serious depletion, and last year's low prices have put a halt to exploration that continues to endure. in other words, OPEC's grip on global oil supply is bound to strengthen in the future. contrary to conventional wisdom i have insisted all year long that OPEC would stick to it's quotas and remain disciplined, an expectation that has proven to be correct. i don't think they're about to change their ways again overnight...the disciplined approach has brought them too much money to abandon it now. usually spring time is a seasonally good period for picking up oil stocks...eventually, if the price of crude remains reasonably high, the majors will revive their capex plans which would be a great boon for the drillers...if your outlook for crude oil is reasonably positive, the future earnings momentum is more likely to be found with the drillers than the integrated majors. hb