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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (36691)	1/5/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Pharms could go lower, but the ones I bought today are not that far from 52 week lows. What charts were you looking at? Getting MRK at 27 PE can't be that bad a deal, can it? I know about the politital issues, but no one's lowered the prices yet. Viagra works. And people are getting older and older, and richer and richer. Yes, if all rational price range support collapses pharmas will go down more, but somebody will have the good sense to buy them. Besides, frankly I think we're oversold now, or damn close to it. Still I respect your opinion. And you could be right. However, no one has made money the last nine years by underestimating this market. And especially blue chip growth stocks. Today was just one day. A profit-taking correction. What will come next? I say up, you say down, Neither one one of us really know. Maybe we're both right. Depends on your exact timing. Intraday highs and lows today alone were in many cases 20% apart in some major stocks. Therefore in one day you could have made what in years past was a damn good yearly return. This is a new market these days. Volotility rules. Usually to the upside, but certainly not always. So is the glass half full or empty? I see no Y2K problems, best economy of in our lifetimes, great optimism everywhere, Fed hike more than priced in already, digital computer internet boom, peace on earth, great earnings in most cases, new money coming in first of the year, Xmas retail numbers very large, tax-selling over, and soon profit-taking over. Just how soon we'll find out tomorrow. I'm betting that by next week the market will back on its way to Dow 12000. Or even much higher. I won't buy the high-fliers with PE's in the hundreds but I can definitely see IBM at 150 within a month or two, for example at PE 30. Or SUNW, CISCO, MSFT, INTC, AAPL. Any of them. Wouldn't surprise me at all. And as for pharmas, they're now at the bottom of the recent trading ranges. So if recent history is any guide they're all good for a 10% pop in the next few weeks. Not bad at all. I remain optimistic.