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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (9522)	1/5/2000 1:48:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

Jim - QQQ: My numbers and methods differ. I took the components as listed on Yahoo quote.yahoo.com@^ndx&d=v4 Downloaded in spreadsheet format. When I tried to get weighted average PE's using nasdaq's weightings the numbers didn't work because extreme PE's skewed the average. So I converted PE's to earnings yields, took this times market caps to get earnings. Then took aggregate earnings and compared to aggregate market cap. For forward estimates, I took Barrons 12/31 IBES EPS estimates converted to PE's, Earnings yields, and earnings as above. Looking at your data, I found one error in mine - Qualcom estimates hadn't been split-adjusted by Barrons since split occurred 12/30..I made the adjustment The top 11 were same as yours except Ericson instead of Amat - for comparability I replaced Ericson with Amat My summary stats: top 11 current PE 78 [2,184.7B Mcap/27.86B Earn] top 11 forward PE 53 [2,184.7B Mcap/41.36B Earn] Lower 89 Market caps: current PE 98 [994.3B Mcap/10.15B Earn] forward PE 67 [994.3B Mcap/14.8B Earn] I'm a bit iffy on the period that Yahoo used for earnings list shown in the above link, and of course there's potential for errors there. Nothing in the above should be construed to indicate that I disagree with your conclusions that QQQ components are way over-valued, I just doubt that the index is as overvalued as I had initially thought [and as your numbers indicate] thus the sureness of the short went away [At precisely the wrong moment]. bob