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To: QwikSand who wrote (25742)	1/5/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Respond to of 64865

"Fair Value" for stocks--I can tell you that after 13 years of working on models that do a pretty good job of predicting the short-term direction for the stock market, I still don't have any model that I trust to tell me whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued. My models predict tomorrow's direction with reasonable accuracy, but they don't know WHY the market is likely to move in that direction. Market valuations contain the combined insight of all investors, and how can any of us truly know what the long-term future will bring? I loved reading about all the predictions for Year 2000 that were made 20, 50, and 100 years ago. We're blinded to what the future will really become. So, "fair value" -- well, all I can come up with is to observe and compare the broad market (NYSE), the companies at the cutting edge (NASDAQ), and Treasury bonds. When I see a divergence I get worried, but I don't know who's "right". Thanks for message, QS. Nice to meet you! Kevin