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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Cave who wrote (57882)	1/5/2000 2:15:00 AM
From: enervestor	Respond to of 95453

My Market Scenerio. FWIW What I saw today was primarily delayed profit-taking on extremely overvalued techs and biotechs. I sold some QCOM yesterday, but am sitting on the sidelines the rest of the week. I think there are a lot of tech investors like me who wanted to take some profits, but wanted to wait until after Jan 1. I think most of the delayed profit taking will be over after this week, and the techs will start to climb again through the rest of January. As Feb approaches, I think serious interest rate worries will start affecting the market. If the Fed not only raises rates but indicates a series of rate increases are coming, as I think they will, then the serious decline in the high-fliers starts and the rotation begins. I agree with Big Bull that the market keeps ignoring the world wide demand part of the equation and focuses solely on supply. Analysts and economists keep insisting that crude's "normal" price range is below $20 a barrel, but they keep ignoring growing world demand. When crude reached around $25 in the mid-nineties, all the experts said that price wasn't justified by fundamentals, yet there it was and stayed. It was not really oversupply of crude, but rather the world-wide economic crash that caused crude prices to plummet. Now economies around the world are humming again and crude is back to $25 and the experts are all saying it's overvalued again. In my view, rather than having two unsubstainable hikes in crude over the last four years, we've had a steady $20+ price with an unsubstainable dip in the middle, caused by a temporary, but serious economic crisis. A lot of investors got burnt in the selloff and are obviously reluctant to return to energy, but as they realize energy prices are being driven by demand and not just by OPEC's caprices, they will begin to return. And another thing! If only so much crude is being produced, and there are more tankers than normal heading to the US, it stands to reason there are fewer tankers heading to the rest of the oil-consuming world. The world demand-supply balance doesn't change, just how it is apportioned. I guess the spin-doctors don't want us to know that!