Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uel_Dave who wrote (59585)	1/5/2000 7:50:00 AM
From: Randall Knight	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Equal time to Motely Fool: Here is the response to my email to the author of the Motley Fool article condemning the Paine Webber analyst's valuation of Qualcomm. Do you care to comment upon the numbers? 3 billion units sold averagin $180 apiece in 10 years? Do you know how aggrressive that is? You understand that there will only be 7 billion people on the planet at that time, right? I understand the viability of the ASIC chipsets, I understand the superiority of the technology. 4 years ago I was consulting for the Indian government as they evaluated relative techologies for wireless and even then the engineers were singing the praises of CDMA over GSM or TDMA. And yet they went with GSM. But 3 billion units in 2010? And a terminal value of 60x? Do you understand how crazy that is? It gives no room for error in pricing, or ascendancy of another protocol (one thing you should know about standards is that the best technological standard does not always win, particularly when national governments are doing the choosing). It does not give any chance of a competing and superior standard to be developed by another company, which is a distinct possibility. And finally, you evidently have some strong feelings that Qualcomm will come out on top. And they very well might. I conceded that point in the article. In fact, I would not be surprised in the slightest if they do. But this technology has not reached its logical end- future refinements or new status-breaking protocols have a very high likelihood of being developed, and chances are that this development will be done by someone else. I pity the Qualcomm shareholder who has his head in the sand if and when this happens. The stupid thing is that I own Qualcomm. It makes me sick to see it rise so fast, because it denies the company the chance to grow in tandem with its technology. As it stands they cannot make any mistakes. And you know what? They will. It happens. The Qualcomm management team is human, and humans make mistakes. Period. I absolutely positively hope that the day that happens I will have taken my little girl out fishing or something else unrelated. Thank you for calling me irresponsible. Do you have any idea how hard it is to publicly write a negative report about a technology you like in a company you own just because the principal of the basis of a recent rise is so out of step with reality? But I believe that the market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run. To see this madness and NOT say anything for fear that people would criticize me, now THAT would be irresponsible. Best of luck to you. Bill Mann