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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (57886)	1/5/2000 9:12:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

*** Schroeder says DOUBLE WEIGHT / increase weighting 200% to the Oilpatch ! Schroeder touts MRO (good call) & Conoco - has recently commented on UPR as the "cheapest" stock in their Oil universe... also re: HAL downgrade - a trend is in place here, downgrade of svc & drillers/upgrades to E&P's The total separation of fundamentals to price momenteum between these two subsectors hasn't been lost on the Street. There are downward earnings revisions & comments on expected downside misses all over the Service & Driller Sector - quite the opposite for E&P's who are getting upgraded all over the place - and who will post superb qtr over qtr & year over year gains; the exact opposite will occur in the service & drillers. Time to really weight the E&P's on weakness here - because the earnings reporting period for them may play out perfectly for a market correction - rotation play. OSX stocks are shifting money around - some stocks are hardly cheap here, like SII BJS CAM WFT - actually SLB HAL BHI look cheaper than many of the more "boutique" Mo-Mo fav's... ESV, or NE look cheap to anyone here ? Not me... not with EOG NBL UPR PXD OEI - all having virtual "waltzes" for 35-50% upside within the next qtr imho. Does anyone see $33 ESV, or $72 SII in that same time frame ? - vs. EOG running from $15 to $22.50, or UPR from $12 to $18 ? - this value to fundamentals disparity is a "Gift Horse Buying Opp" imho. Not that I am not licking my chops on some driller & service stocks here. I like SII on a break under $40 if seen, love CAM WFT on another $3-$4 lower "if" seen, in drillers I commented a short while back that RIG FLC & PTEN were standouts on value here - these 3 still are the most "buyable" on any weakness here - FLC is a buy on any & all weakness. I like FLC because they are the leader of the pack in their ability to upside surprise all analyst estimates if we "heat up" more quickly than expected in EITHER deep, or shallow water drilling - they still have some cold stacked rigs that are not in analyst estimates here and once again; aint gonna be no BOOM 2000 without $20-$30 FLC through the mid-end cycle run; FLC in the $10's if a gift DOUBLE, sooner or later. ... like VTS OII NOI UFAB (equal valuation to FGH, earlier in the cycle play, needs smaller orders to fill its capacity, easier to get these cap ex commitments than a $200 M rig order !)and looking at GMRK if its hits the $11's - worth an intrad day gtc buy limit order, CXIPY SCSWF PGO on any decent retrace here as well as fav's SII WFT CAM if we return to "support" of OSX 68-72 levels. Long & looking to get "longer" on EOG UPR NBL XTO PXD OEI VPI here... holding VTS as my main OS play here... Let see what Mr Market thought of the API's ??? Curious as to how the little guy holds these NASDQ stocks when they open 10-20 points down - how does this NOT lead to a mass exodus ? - I give them credit for their conviction & staying power; but how do you NOT take ALL, or most of your profits here and wait for the Greenspan hammer to fall - to buy back cheaper later ? Perhaps this scenario is "too predictable " ? - I don't think so... I would imagine there will be some serious games & some intense running of the stops on many of these stocks. Let the "SHAKE OUT" begin...