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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14151)1/5/2000 9:02:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
tekboy,

I just read TMF Otter's piece about the Paine Webber analysis. If Otter's numbers are right (I haven't read the Paine Webber report.), I agree that the method of analysis is crazy. I can't justify the analyst's assumption of the number of phones sold in 2010 nor the PSR.

On the other hand, it's very difficult to know what businesses Qualcomm will be in ten years from now in a relatively big way that they aren't now. I also don't know if the Paine Webber analyst or TMF Otters is confusing phones with other devices that will be sending and receiving reams of data difficult to imagine right now.

Where I think Otter crossed the line is publicly writing that the analyst is being irresponsible. If investors are comfortable paying 25 times sales today, I see no reason why they won't pay 60 times sales ten year from now. There's no reason this madness has to end. :)

--Mike Buckley