hi pham,
I remember your early T/A questions back in the "old days" :o)
Here is what I do:
1. Analyze management in minute detail. Who are they, where did they come from, what have they accomplished, what prompted them to shift companies, how long do they stay at a company, who have they worked with, what is their educational background, what is their managment style, and much more. People run companies, always have, always will.
2. Fundamentally analyze a company from the top all the way down to the garbage can level. What is their product line, what margins are expected, what is ROE and ROA, are production capacity issues a factor, what level does the company pump into R&D, who are their customers, what factors adversely affect the company, who are their competitors, why will they continue to grow, does the company possess monopoly status or proprietary technology in their industry, how much emphasis is placed on hiring the best engineers (hint hint, wink wink :o), what do the books look like, is cash flow an issue, and so on.
3. Technically analyze the company initially to determine where they stand at present. T/A is a topic in itself that could cover several pages, and you have your own methods already so I'm skipping this.
From that point on pham, I really do VERY LITTLE F/A, because by this point I already fully believe in the management, the company, and their business model. In terms of analysis, I then switch almost full gear to T/A, and simply monitor the F/A to ensure no substantial deviation develops between expectations and reality.
My fundamental analysis of SMTC is so basic at this point I can spell it out in one sentence: IF JACK POE EVER LEAVES THIS COMPANY, AND I HAVE AN INVESTMENT IN IT, I'M OUT BEFORE HE EVEN SEES THE EXIT SIGN!!!
See how it works? People run companies pham, one of the very best is running this show, you probably know that quite well by this time. I wish I was an engineer all over again (like I used to be before I got all self-employed), I know exactly which door I would go knocking on looking for a job, the door with an addres of 652 Mitchell Road :o)
Regards, JB
P.S. For the technically inclined, learn the issue of "latch-up", why it is so critical, what it takes to fix it, what it means to "latch-up", and you will be well on your way to knowing why SMTC is new King of the Analogs. |
