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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (46691)	1/5/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116766

Who's irrational now? By Dr. Irwin Kellner, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:35 PM ET Jan 4, 2000 Kellner's forecast Commentary section NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stop me if you've heard this before. People now buy stocks mainly for capital gains -- in other words, not for dividends, but to sell them at a higher price. Stocks are riskier than bonds, so to compensate for this, equity investors should receive dividends that are greater than yields on bonds, right? Wrong! Dividends on equities ($SPX: news, msgs) have been below the interest rate on the ten-year Treasury bond for at least a quarter of a century. To add insult to injury, a growing number of companies have decided not to pay dividends at all -- even though they may be profitable. Needless to say, this has changed the rules of the game, when it comes to figuring out the true value of a company's shares. Dividends used to be regarded as a sign of a company's strength. If the firm earned more money, it would pay more dividends, and its stock price would rise accordingly. Part and parcel of this thesis was that people would buy and hold stocks for a long period of time. That's why I made the comparison above to the ten-year Treasury bond. All this now seems passe. People now buy stocks mainly for capital gains -- in other words, not for dividends, but to sell them at a higher price. And that decision to sell comes with increased frequency. Indeed, more than a few companies are hard-pressed to tell who their shareholders are when the average stock is held for one day. It's called gambling So what used to be called investing has now become nothing more than gambling. And what is even more worrisome is that people who buy one day and manage to sell the next at a higher price think that they have become investment geniuses. It's no longer a matter of doing one's homework, studying the industry, management, or even the concept. As for profits -- forget about it! That's so 1980s; this is, after all the 21st century, where all that matters is finding a greater fool to take the stock off your hands at a higher price. Earning money doesn't matter anymore. Don't take my word for it, look at last year's best stock market performers and you'll find not only no dividends -- but no earnings, either, and no prospects for making money anytime soon. Graham and Dodd -- where are you now that we really need you? Dr. Irwin Kellner, chief economist of CBS MarketWatch, is Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University. cbs.marketwatch.com

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (46691)	1/5/2000 8:09:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116766

re: Y2k & the govt. (Hell, they can't even get it right without any Y2k problems) Man declared dead by U.S. 'not quite ready to go' Lexington minister fights health problems By JOSEPH GERTH, The Courier-Journal James W. Kemp, 44, is trying to prove to Medicare that he is not dead. LEXINGTON, Ky. -- Easter is normally the season of resurrection. But a Lexington minister declared dead by the federal government has been trying to complete his own rebirth during the Christmas season. Despite what Medicare says and what the Social Security Administration believed, the Rev. James W. Kemp, 44, is alive and laughing. "I'm not quite ready to go yet," he said. Kemp, a United Methodist minister who suffers multiple sclerosis, is trying to prove to the federal bureaucracy that he has not passed on and that it should restore benefits that he lost at the end of September. Some type of bureaucratic mistake led Social Security to declare Kemp dead, and the error passed through computer banks to Medicare, which pays for his health care. Kemp learned of the error in mid-September when his wife, on a routine trip to the bank, was told that the couple's joint account had been frozen -- because Kemp supposedly was dead and his will was being probated.(cont) courier-journal.com