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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (7706)	1/5/2000 1:05:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 9256

>>However, the DEC qtr always has the least price erosion and it remains to be seen whether drive prices resume their drop this year which history says is very likely << Yes I understand that. And that is what all the research notes say as the reason for avoiding the DD stocks. And is also the reason for us to watch closely prices of the disks themselves. All I can do is survey the retail prices. And so far they are firm. This is only five days into January. So this has to go on for a few weeks. But if prices do stay firm (or increase), then it would be an upward surprise, since it is not priced into the stocks. History does say disks drop in price in January. But that was in the bad old days when Compaq overbuilt for Christmas and IBM was in the PC business and Packard-Bell was doing their best to go bankrupt. It was also when myriad other silly companies were giving away PC's for free. Looking at the price recovery in Compaq and my own personal verification that some stores are out-of-stock on some Compaq models, I'd say those bad old days are over. So I don't expect the inventory over-hang to be severe right now. As you said, the CC's will be key. -Sarmad