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To: Zoltan! who wrote (12053)1/5/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: KYA27  Respond to of 21876
 
ZOLTHEAD,Answer the QUESTION!!!!!!!!!!



To: Zoltan! who wrote (12053)1/5/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 21876
 
Zoltan!,

Potential cannot be gauged in the manner that you describe. I suspect that you would miss most great investment opportunities if you relied solely on what you see behind an accountant's visor. True vision requires that they be removed from time to time to see the larger picture and ultimately visceral vision to make the call.

In other words, you have no rationale for CSCO's current price, and rely instead on true vision and visceral vision (sure sounds like 'gut feeling' to me). That may be fine for you, but as a charter member of that class of investor who weighs such issues as potential reward, risk and price in the investment equation, I must pass.

It might interest you to know that virtually every major internal investment decision made by major companies (including CSCO) relies on just those parameters you dismissed as myopic.

The greater fool theory relies on buying an investment knowing that is overpriced in the belief that a greater fool will come along and pay a higher price for it. But the greatest fool of all pays no attention to valuation whatsoever.

TTFN,
CTC



To: Zoltan! who wrote (12053)1/5/2000 5:14:00 PM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
 
Zoltan!, RE: I suspect that you would miss most great investment opportunities if you relied solely on what you see behind an accountant's visor. True vision requires that they be removed from time to time to see the larger picture and ultimately visceral vision to make the call.

I would have to disagree here. True vision should be combined with that accountant's visor to find the truly great values. After all, it wasn't too long ago that DELL could have been bought at 10x earnings, INTC at 10x earnings, MSFT <20x earnings, etc.

When all you have is vision without value, you are vulnerable to losing a LOT of money when markets are not perfect. The market in the 90's has been near perfect. There is no guarantee that this decade will be as friendly. I will stick with methods that make money in all kinds of markets.