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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GVTucker who wrote (12055)1/5/2000 3:21:00 PM
From: Diamond Jim  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
 
re: "that are very good at this game (and believe me, it truly is a game in this case)"

I would love to see the SEC start looking in to this game playing.



To: GVTucker who wrote (12055)1/5/2000 3:35:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Respond to of 21876
 
GVT,

Agreed! But it always comes to a bad end sooner or later.

The issue I raised with Zoltan was purely one of valuation, not investment style.

I am a growth investor, by which I mean that I look for companies that are reasonably priced given reasonable expectations of growth (AEOS and VISX are two examples). I am not looking for securities that are underpriced (although if I find one that is a growth story I will gleefully jump all over it). I generally like a security that is fairly priced and has good growth potential. I buy these stocks and sock them away for a long period of time and sell under either of two conditions: the long-term fundamentals erode or the stock becomes outrageously priced.

TTFN,
CTC



To: GVTucker who wrote (12055)1/5/2000 4:57:00 PM
From: John Malloy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
 
<Chuzzlewit, it is practically impossible to justify buying CSCO based upon any rational discounted cash flow model.>

Not so! In Post #30772 I reported a discounted cash flow analysis that showed an investor who insisted on a 12% after-tax return and who planned to hold Cisco for two years could afford to pay $138 for it.

The analysis was based on the growth of equity/share gradually slowing from today's 53 %/yr. to 50 %/yr. in two years. That growth pattern brings equity/share to $13.81 in two years. I also allowed for the price/book ratio to slide to 13.8 by that time. That combination of equity/share and price/book ratio brings Cisco's price to $191 in two years. Allow for a 20% capital gains tax and 1% broker's commissions when buying and selling, discount at this investor's 12% minimum acceptable return, and you find he can afford to pay $138 for Cisco.

John Malloy