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To: Ausdauer who wrote (8591)	1/5/2000 7:04:00 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

That projection of a ten-fold increase is probably too low, especially if the PIC (personal information card) being developed by SNDK and Kaneb succeeds. Imagine a health data card for every citizen, or initially every citizen on Medicare. A lot more than 67 million units, for sure. It would also appear that the projection is based on the markets for cameras and MP3 players, but may not include computers, palm devices, and other appliances. Note also that SNDK and Toshiba, through their joint venture factory in Virginia, are the only two companies working on really large capacity flash cards - another market for computers and other devices that need more capacity. Taking these developments into consideration, a better projection might be around 150 million units by 2010, and 60 million units by 2003.

To: Ausdauer who wrote (8591)	1/5/2000 7:15:00 PM
From: Michael A. Gottesman	Respond to of 60323

Boy oh boy. Now just about everyone has jumped in. Everyone and their grandmother wants to be in the enormously increasing CF market. Everyone is announcing that they will be making CF. Of course, why not, its an open standard. But is SNDK getting royalty income from all these people? That's my question. If so, the royalty income should increase dramatically. But wouldn't the competing manufacturers drive down the margins and SNDK's share of the market at some point? Mike G.