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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30367)	1/5/2000 7:47:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

<<Well, the new year got off to a bang, but the bulls probably wish they had stayed in bed for the first couple of days of Y2K. So far for the year the SP500 is down 4.7%, the Dow is down 4.4%, and the Nasdaq is down 4.1% (and 6.8% from its Monday high). If you watch the financial shows on TV, you will see everyone scrambling around for reasons that the market is off to a rough start this year. But all the clues were there for the last few weeks, and we have been pointing them out. The market internals were weak and not confirming the new market highs, interest rates have continued higher, the market was very overbought, and the Nasdaq was putting in a blow off top. In the first two days of January, the Dow and SP500 have now given back all their gains from December. And in doing so it looks like they have put in an intermediate term top. The main question is just how deep will this selloff go? We don't think the selling is over yet. With the indexes down more that 4% already, we suspect we are looking at a selloff of at least 7%. The Nasdaq Composite has already dropped from a high of almost 4200 down to 3900. We don't have any trouble envisioning the Nasdaq dropping to the 3600 area, which would be a selloff in the 15% range. Of course, this won't happen all at once. We will see some sharp countertrend rallies. In fact there will probably be one right around the corner, probably starting Wednesday or Thursday. But we really think that the buying will be relatively short lived...and then the sellers will come back. There is one thing we hesitate to mention, but if you have been subscribing for long you know we love these calendar quirks. The Japanese stock market was the world's standout throughout the 1980's. Then on the first day of the 90's, it set a new all time high and started to sell off. That was the start of a decade long bear market that still isn't over. Now here we are starting a new decade, and the U.S. market had an all time high on the first day of the decade and then started to sell off. Long time readers know we are not doom and gloom perma-bears by any stretch of the imagination...but it just seemed like an odd quirk how these things can line up, at least for a short while. Given our bearish outlook, we are pretty comfortable with our model being on the sideline and out of stocks. Of course, we will continue to watch the model for an "all clear" signal to get back into the market.>>

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30367)	1/5/2000 7:49:00 PM
From: Condor	Respond to of 50167

"this thread of mine which is quite deserted" LOL Ike, I go to your thread at least 6 times a day to take the temperature and post here about 1 times per month. Thats 180 references vs 1 post. Definitely not deserted. Please just keep doing what you're doing. Appreciative, Condor

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30367)	1/5/2000 8:10:00 PM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 50167

IQBAL, I lurk and learn every day. I print your analysis and print out my charts; brew a cup of tea and compare my thoughts and analysis with yours. Call it home schooling. I hope to ace your tests one day. lol !! I appreciate all your hard work. Merci beaucoup, Twick

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30367)	1/5/2000 8:28:00 PM
From: Shoot1st	Respond to of 50167

You're the brightest guy I've read on SI in 2 years. I am here every day..all day long and have been for a long time. I don't have the ability to add to the prosperity of this thread. Sometimes it makes for tough reading. But how else will I learn, if not from the better player. Change.......nothing. Shootie

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30367)	1/6/2000 8:23:00 AM
From: TSM	Respond to of 50167

Ike, I read you every day, do not change a thing. This is already the best thread on SI. There are probably a lot of other lurkers like myself, who do not post very often, that are regular readers of your thread. I have learned a great deal from you and consider your thread the best learning experience on SI. Thanks TSM