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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: deibutfeif who wrote (95092)	1/5/2000 9:21:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 186894

dbf: iNTEL JUST GOT European environmental approval for a new Celeron motherboard called YA810e yesterday. I have no idea what it is and how it fit in to 533 Mhz Celeron. ftp://download.intel.com/design/litcentr/ce_docs/desktop/boards/pentiumii_celeron/b0064.pdf john

To: deibutfeif who wrote (95092)	1/5/2000 11:58:00 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

Ref- "Seems like if the processor constraint that GTW suffered was only for Celeron-based machines, then one might presume that Intel HAS ramped fast enough on the high-end (high-margin) product. Thus, this could be GOOD news for Q4 earnings" Gateway's problem appears to be a demand forecasting problem. Apparently they did not get enough low end Celerons. But then they cite a y2k demand problem for high end business systems. This suggests that they had adequate supplies of high end chips( Coppermines) , but no customers. Apparently Gateway has forgotten how to forecast demand and product mix. For a few years chips have been in plentiful supply, and with the BTO(Build to Order) model, demand forecasting was an academic exercise. Gateway and Dell ordered chips as soon as the customer ordered the computer.So the risk of demand forecasting was passed on Intel. It takes two months or more from wafer start to finished product, and so Intel marketing made the best guess of customers needs. Now that the chips are in short supply, to ensure adequate chip supply will require an order several months in advance. So Gateway and Dell will have to learn to forecast their product mix and units required. This may be a painful experience for companies dedicated to the BTO model. Unfortunately the chip business switches between "supply constrained" and "demand constrained" at the drop of a hat. And no one has success predicting when this switch happens. Hopefully Intel is not wafer fab capacity constrained, because it takes years to bring brand new wafer fabs on line. This shortage is a good opportunity for AMD to exploit.Six months ago it was gasping for air. Now the shortages in Flash and Microprocessors, and good execution on K-7 have given it a reprieve.