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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DO$Kapital who wrote (57496)	1/5/2000 10:27:00 PM
From: DO$Kapital	Respond to of 108040

kensey' has recommended ORCL (Long) at Jan 5 2000 1:35AM Oracle Corp ( NASDAQ : ORCL ) Computer - Software : 4 new highs in group of 346 Symbol Last Time Change High Low Volume ----- ---- ---- ----- ---- --- ----- ORCL 107.69 6:37PM -10.44 118.63 105.00 29,206,200 Community Take -------------- 242 Long / 17 Short 'kensey' said: pivot point for Oracle (ORCL) is 102. that is where i think entry can be had. stock closed today at 107 ish. this assessment comes compliment of the 10-day interactive chart. from viewing this chart (with OBV indicator enabled of course) we see that this is where the stock cupped on 12/22. next we see that 102 is where the stock found support on 12/27. so 102 is support. if that gets breached, 96 is the next line of support. so strategy is pull in some shares at 102 and then at 96. notice that the 10-day indicates that this was just another day at the office. except the direction was down instead of up. but i dont see anything unusual. been looking for an entry for quite some time ever since the bull earnings report and the news that Oracle has partnered with Ford in order to do for them (get their in house purchasing on-line) what Commerce One (which i think is a buy at 200) is doing for General Motors. so any B2B (business to business) portfolio should include Oracle stock. this year, one of the themes is that the old gaurd industrial giants get their internal purchasing web-icized as the automobile giants are doing. and there are a lot of old guard companies out there that may in fact start going down this road! who wins in B2B? that is unclear. the current leaders are Commerce One (CMRC) and Ariba (ARBA). but based on the Ford deal, i'm not gonna count Oracle out. good time as any to remove a few issues. but i just went through my core portfolio and ripped graphs for them all (compliments of the graphs in bulk feature) and the action today does not come off as 'that bad'. then again, the action of 'one day' always looks less horrific as you have the context of the past year within which to digest it. and by the time clearstation readies graphs after the close, probably have a good buzz on. there will always be down days. this was one. if there was any stock you were not sure about keeping going forward, today was the day to get rid of them. that is what big down day number 1 is for : cleaning house. then when we have more data on the nature of the sell-off, start looking for issues to buy. if you think today was 'the end' then sell everything. i am not egomaniacal enough to state that. note that the bond market went up today. so in this day of rate fears, the bond market rallies. a contradiction? no. a correction in the US stock market increases the likelihood that the US economy starts to slow down. and this would make future rate increases by the Fed less likely. or, the light at the end of the rate increase tunnel a tad brigher. in fact, bonds might be topping out right here. point is : the consensus is that the stock market is putting too much money into peoples pockets throwing the consumptive side of the economy into an imbalance. ok. now the stock market is coming down. imbalance removed, problem solved (right Alan?). it is the self corrective nature that makes longevity possible. and gives me the comfort level i need to hold onto all my 200, 300, 400 and 500 percent gainers. you are either here for today (in which case your probably in cash) or gone for tomorrow to points Kauai (yes, it is that time of the month). but i am removing FMKT. FMKT : stock shed 60 points after briefing came out with this blurb : 11:57 ET FreeMarkets Inc (FMKT) 303 -38 7/8 (-11%): CNBC reports that business-to-business online auctions company confirms loss of business with General Motors (GM). and then this : 15:24 ET Commerce One (CMRC) 212 +8 3/8 (+4%): Traders/investors viewing FreeMarkets' (FMKT 280 3/8 -61 1/2) loss as CMRC's gain... volume 6.9 mln; intraday high 223. unfortunately i was out stacking wood. so i'll see what kind of exit i am able to finagle manyana. you snooze, you lose! you stack wood, you stay warm at night, but that wood just got a bit more expensive! 2) umm .. that's it's! strategy here is to wait through the current (i see support on the naz at 3800) sell-off (if that cracks, good-bye to december) as (which means we go all the way back to 3550) earnings (so i think tomorrow we bee-line to 3800) season (but then we have a significant bounce) is (which we need a more meaningful bottom can be projected) just (of course, there is a lot more wood to stack) around (so if 3800 gets taken out and we continue to ratchet south) the (i shall promptly head outside to stack more wood) corner (and then blaze up before embarking on a long hike) and (the dog has a thyroid issue so might not be able to accompany) should (do not attempt to move 2cords of wood without a wheelbarrow) receive (stop. take the time to go out and buy one) full (if you think we had it bad, the Heng Seng is down 8% right now!) metal (for those at the office, i will be late if naz south of 3800) jacket focus when that happens. the benny : when it hits stocks will be in an over-sold condition. so it is at this time that i plan to make the assessment of what stays and what goes. stocks to which the reaction to earnings is poor will be sold. or, stocks that post up bad numbers will get sold. or profit taking will occur in spots if my outlook at that time starts to dim. kensey See the annotated graph of this recommendation at: clearstation.com +-