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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (3800)	1/6/2000 11:00:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

TSMC Buys out Acer fab.....BTW get some sleep:-) eetimes.com

To: FJB who wrote (3800)	1/6/2000 11:26:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

RG, I won't sleep well until long-bond yields go back down, which may be awhile... Yeah, with the long end at 6.53% versus 6.21%, I have found that The Market, according to my comprehensive, predictive model, is approximately 14.27% overvalued here. Moreover, my discounted cash flow model for LRCX gives me very mixed signals as once the long end edges above the 6.47% level. This is more disconcerting given the simplicity of my company specific modeling. My methodology is straightforward: --I build out LRCX's after-tax cash flows for a modest 50 years. --To discount these predictable flows, I use the long bond as my risk free rate. --I apply a negative risk premium to the market of the (1.0275*CPIcore -((1+LIBOR ^.5)-1)). --I assume that LRCX, over that span, is no riskier than The Market (as defined by a blend of the S&P500, the Wilshire 5000, TheStreet.com Internet Index, and a proprietary basket of bonds that is heavily weighted toward David Bowie asset backed bonds and Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare Receivership Notes). Using this technique, the with the long end at 6.47%, LRCX is worth $1.43/share. When I last worked through the calculation (long end at 6.31%), LRCX was worth $859.23/share. I can't believe the Bills are not starting Flutie. I am now routing for the Titans. <g> --Duker, he of too much coffee ...

To: FJB who wrote (3800)	1/6/2000 11:56:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

Real interest rates are currently trading at the the upper end of their long-term average of 2-4%(currently about 4%). Unless things really heat up, I look for rates to fall over the coming year. Regardless, IMO it makes sense to ignore what rates are doing and simply hold great companies. FWIW. BK

To: FJB who wrote (3800)	1/7/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

Taiwan IC Packaging Sector to Enjoy Business Peak in 2000 January 7, 2000 (TAIPEI) -- Some integrated circuit companies in Taiwan say they are expecting a "golden age" in the year 2000, with 40 percent to 50 percent growth in sales. Contract wafer manufacturers have been operating at full capacity as orders continue flowing in, which in turn is boosting demand for services from packaging companies. Local IC packaging companies such as Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries Co., Orient Semiconductor Electronics Co., Ltd. and Lingsen Precision Industries Ltd. have all been affected by the phenomenon. ASE's operating revenues have been on the rise since the third quarter. Its November operating revenues are sure to exceed NT$1.8 billion, hitting the highest monthly record ever. The company estimates that its IC packaging sales will jump by 50 percent in 1999. (NT$30.8 = US$1) Siliconware reported around NT$1.3 billion in operating revenues for November. Annual sales for 2000 are set at NT$18 billion, up 50 percent from 1999's record. Orient estimates its November operating revenues at NT$1.16 billion, marking a 5.26 percent gain from the previous month and 60.14 percent year-on-year. This is also the second month in a row that the company reported record-high operating revenues. Annual sales are likely to soar at least 40 percent. Lingsen's operating revenues remained above NT$190 million after September, when the figure dropped to NT$180 million due to the massive earthquake that rocked Taiwan in September last year. November operating revenues are estimated at a 19-month high of NT$229 million. Annual sales in 2000 are expected to hit around NT$3 billion. Related stories: Taiwan's Package Makers to Top World Rankings in Two Years, ITRI Forecasts Asia's IC Packaging/Testing Firms Compete for Market Sector Lead (Commercial Times, Taiwan)