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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Maloney who wrote (72969)	1/6/2000 9:39:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB and Gang: Gateway warned this AM (of course the insiders have been selling heavily for several quarters). This, on the heels of a very nasty similar warning from CompUSA. Sony also warned last night. IBM warned twice, but of course the lambs do not pay any attention. A few weeks ago, I posted a note in which I suggested that there were several visible negative "triggers", all aimed at the January through March timeframe, which would likely cause a very serious selloff in this market. The above-noted warnings suggest that the Semi/PC trigger is well oiled. On another "trigger" front, check out truck traffic in your area. At this end, our first reading of the year is well down from the corresponding reading of a year ago. Those Y2K inventory build-ups may already be starting to kick in. Do we already detect a growing weakness in the dot.com stocks? (heh, heh, heh). This trigger also appears to be alive and well on Wall Street. I note that the U.S. dollar is under serious pressure and that the long bond, while enjoying a bit of a rally, is also continuing a relentless trend towards weaker pricing. I wonder if this has anything to do with treasury selling? (g) Alan has been forced to ADD reserves of late(and Y2K is behind us). Our boy is in a decided bind. I expect a very near term increase in rates. We are entering a period during which it is going to be very difficult if not impossible for this crazy tulip market to avoid a cremation. Best, Earlie

To: Terry Maloney who wrote (72969)	1/6/2000 12:14:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Terry, When you think about it, equity guys have more balls to juggle in the air than do bond guys. A bond guy has to worry about interest rates and the investment quality of his holdings. An equity guy has to worry about interest rates, earnings, industry fundamentals, valuations, company specific stuff and much more. Of course, a junk bond manager or a convertible manager has all those worries also. But we Treasury guys just have to worry about rates. <g> Of course, whenever anyone thought I was goofing off, I dazzled them with options and futures jargon, which work for both bonds and equities. And then, there was always my favorite comeback: if bonds are so easy, how come my returns and payout are so much higher than everyone else's? That usually ended the discussion. <g>