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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (85510)	1/6/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572544

Elmer, Re:"reasonable discussion" Yes, lets keep it up!!! Intel cancelled price cuts in mid Q4 as I recall so ASPs should be good. Clearly demand was great. And this is good for AMD and Intel. In fact I recall Intel at the analysts conf call they expected supplies to be tight thru Q2 2000. Remember AMD at 6M units or so will barely exceed last years Q4. VIA/IDT dumped 2-3M units in Q4 98 and Intel must have picked that up. In addition overall CPU demand was up 17-18% YOY per IDC. So Intel should be up 20% from 98 Q4 in unit terms. They did over 30M in Q4 98 as I recall so maybe they will do close to 40M units. And yes Dresden is CLEARLY late. My recollection is that dresden was oringinally planned to start up in mid 99 with real volumes in Q4 99 to coincide with ATHLON push. And AMD even had the Fab opening in December to make it appear like they hit the 99 target. And every recent conf call there has been a 1Q shift in dresden production - now Q2. If Dresden was pushed out due to lack of CPU demand then at the conf call AMD should announce earlier ramp up of dresden. If Dresden ramp is again pushed out to Q3 say - they are clearly having major problems. regards, Kash

To: Elmer who wrote (85510)	1/6/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: tejek	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1572544

It would seem to me that Intel is bursting at the seams and whether or not they smash expectations depends on ASPs. The point I have been trying to make is this: #1 Intel said early in last quarter they would have trouble meeting demand across the board. Customers are reporting Intel had trouble meeting demand, and in some cases failed to meet demand. I attribute this is demand rather than manufacturing problems. If its not a manufacturing issue but rather Intel could not keep up with demand even when at full production and sold everything that it could produce during the last quarter, then Intel would be rewarded with a higher stock price. This morning, after the GTW announcement, Intel is down 2 3/4. The markets have spoken....your argument is specious. BTW AMD is up 7/8....you should think of unloading Intel before it becomes wallpaper fodder. ted