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Biotech / Medical : Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (419)	1/6/2000 11:41:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1834

Torben..... >> It doesn't look like the market is that impressed << First lesson of biotech investing..... assume that "the market" is ignorant. NBIX has a target painted on it. Today is the day that everyone has picked for the collapse of >>'99 appreciation<< stocks. This isn't an instant gratification market any more. There are hedge funds out there that are getting short on any stock that appreciated like crazy in '99. The strategy is wise. For NBIX, I don't know if this slight selling pressure is simple profit taking or active short selling. Makes no difference, they've picked the wrong stock to sell, IMO. There may be some negative sentiment toward the Taisho deal from those who actually do know the company and its programs. They may fear that NBIX is committing to 50% of development costs for a program that isn't in the "top three" (insomnia, depression/anxiety, IL4 fusion toxin). However, the phase I trial is being conducted in diabetics, and this business plan is leveraged like there is no tomorrow. If JNJ initiates a large phase II for depression and any one of the other programs starts to look like a "go", you'll see fund managers rush in so fast that they stumble over each other. I share the view with "shorts" that most of these '99 appreciation stocks are due to crash, and I'm largely in cash, waiting to cherry pick bargains. However, I'm also loaded with NBIX, because it's still DIRT CHEAP, IMO. Take a long-term view to companies where your research tells you that an issue is a bargain, even if you're dealing with a short-term trading position. Don't listen to others, including the bulls of this thread -- do your own research. This (Taisho) is a very good deal in a program which I valued at $0. They could do a similar deal for the U.S. and walk with milestones and royalties for free. If they like their chances, they won't do such. In that event, our leverage just became even more pronounced. Either way, shareholders win. Broader perspective...... this is GREAT for biotech. This is similar to JT/Agouron, with yet another Japanese pharma taking responsibility for Europe. Competition will continue to heat up for "geographies".