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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (57990)	1/6/2000 12:12:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Rotation ! yessssssss; run OEI NBL EOG run.... OEI finally got credit for their recent drilling results w/ KMG. I'm so happy that I might just jump up & kiss my own ass... OEI EOG NBL - all up very strong 5-18% & subsector standard bearers APA & BR up over a $1 each... E&P's looking good - small cap fav' of mine (small holding) RGO getting really nice buying. XTO is THE coiled spring - they will have a nice upside surprise imho; come the release of Q4 - and are on target for $4.00 cfps in 2000 - now trading at a near historic low cfps multiple of 2.13 x 2000 cfps estimates... Someone tell me how XTO does not see $12 within the next 4-5 months for a margined double !? - I see it hitting $15 by 4th of July and potentially $18 if we see analyst forecasts of $2.50 Nat Gas for 2000. - this is the epitome of a no-brainer, given it is not a high risk wildcat, high drilling cost - high exploration risk company; much more exploitation & development - steady, predictable and simply way too damn cheap ! This from the point where I really loaded up on it - was my #1 pick for the easiest run up of 50% - from $8 3/16 to $12 3/8ths ish. EOG from $15 to $22.50 is a close 2nd... I feel better about those two than say drillers like ESV NE RD moving another 50% - only FLC, maybe PTEN, or laggards PKD GW could see that imho - I am not sure if we see $30-32 ESV RDC - but, wouldnt rule it out ! I think the drillers are the "mo-mo" sector - maybe very tradeable for quick breakouts - but, will continually retrace on getting overbought (nice problem huh) - great traders here - but, watch for some whipsawing. I like the breakout potential of the E&P's better and they are at much better fundamental values and are closer to supported bottoms as well. With the E&P's I feel I have both equal, if not superior short term "break out" ability and better overall value and bottom support as well. In service drillers; I am watching FLC RIG PTEN - for any decent pullbacks, been buying only VTS of any size of late, watching OII NOI here, nibbled small on UFAB - would like PGO in the $14's if seen, may have missed GLBL sub $7 - I'll catch it later - hell, this may be a great "double" candidate as well - aint no Boom 2000 cycle peak without $15-$20 GLBL imho. My fav's SII CAM WFT are too pricey for my blood right now - as opposed to values & nearterm upside I see in E&P's. But, I will continually look for opps to re-acquire these on pullbacks later. Intnl exposure drillers like SDC PDE even GLM & DO to a degree are the laggards here - if they lag this breakout; then they become buys imo. Postal: where is the OSX headed over the next two weeks ? hmmmm; probably a test of prior resistance OSX 90-95; then a pullback to new support perhaps at 80-82ish upon the weak Q4 reporting by service & driller co's - but, it will be the bottom fundamentally for them. To break out above resistance we need good API's and for Nat Gas to bounce back over $2.25 and ultimately, for the Big Kahuna we need OPEC to clear the March Spin Doctor Hurdle & maintain cuts through summer. If OPEC maintains cuts - we RAMP & Run like crazed Dogs for triple digits - maybe another 40% rally within 4-6 weeks like last spring ! I've got E&P Fever - catch it ~