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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (2439)	1/6/2000 8:22:00 PM
From: Joana Tides	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Am i allowed to enter the contest from the lesser-travelled door to the right? Been reading this thread for a year, high time to stop by to extend my compliments to the thread and wish A Happy New Year. Gotta admit to being a Bull... and know the Bears enjoy an opposite and (hopefully) intelligent viewpoint sometimes too. Mad2, thanks for that link to such an informative article about Corporate and market history. Got me to thinking. Warning - This Is A Positive Spin On The Tulips Post - It's Just My Humble Opinion Entry - While it's so true "those who don't study history are condemned to repeat it" i must say of course The End will inevitably come, but it won't be YET and when it does it'll be just a fizzle for awhile til the next new thing comes along. Born In The USA, got my money on techs and internets right where my mouth is too... so of course am watching it close for my own good plus it's also a hobby exploring all the angles. Here's why i think this Runaway Tulip Train we're on is just starting to begin building up a full head of steam now .... 1) It's not just IPO money these Co.'s use, they also trade their own extra shares for volatility profit to grow the same as we do Buy Low Sell High Sell High Buy Low Buy Low Sell High .... 2) Techs and Internets are still at the beginning of the Product Cycle so still got plenty room & time to transformationally expand to an integrated utility of necessity. 3) Many brickhouses have just now seen their first low-expense profits from internet sales and networks and those who haven't know better than to be left outside .com now. 4) The Growers have had to cooperate to hybridize a new dwarf variety of pocket-portable tulip bulb which can thrive wirelessly on the same fertilizer of planned obsolescence that grew those Giant Varieties so big. 5) Teenagers of today are called The Internet Generation. 6) The Internet Generation's parents are Baby Boomers who are now Family Head individual investors needing to grow that hardearned money for college tuitions/weddings/car & home downpayments/elderly parents/grandchildren/retirement. 7) Speaking of retirement - so many Baby Boomers won't be getting a pension or much socialsecurity $ after retirement because the change in the job security structure of their employment world in the years of their adult working life has forced most of them into a more flexible entrepreneural/temp/consultant/jobhopping role which the generations previous counting on a gold watch and a golden handshake at retirement from a grateful Company that took care of them in their old age didn't need to adapt to. I doubt the economic rug is about to be jerked out from under a population of such size who built the Technological Revolution from the recession of the '70's preceding The New Economy, for what? The decision-makers and/or profiteers couldn't count on immunity from repurcussions of that, this time. The attendant social disorder of a depression and a huge elderly population dependent on government benefit programs would be good for no one. An economic problem in the USA would have global consequences and could leave our nation wide open to attack from enemies. So why not scratch that one off the list. 8) Technology and The Internet are introducing economies of scale to business that have never before been known. The profit margin imbalances between .com haves and have-nots can't be equallized until all are under it's umbrella and the beauty of it is, it's not unattainable expense-wise. In the meantime such a discovery of cheap easy distribution and taskmastering would continue to have the unique effect of stabilizing both inflation and recession as we now witness... while at the same time calming social unrest by the introduction of such a democratic and practical possibility of upward mobility as this. 9) Those Tulip bulbs will indeed be worth less and less as they become more common while the beauty (isn't the internet like a beautiful flower?!) and the trading profitability of the bulbs will be enjoyed by more and more people as they propagate and harvest them. 10) Interest rates will probably go up and yes it takes money to make money. Another 1/2% or even 1% interest payment tacked on to a 28% increase in revenue in a year from that loan = no big deal. 11) Best of all, less trees will be cut down to make paper. It's The Third Milenniium & Lights & Internet Stayed ON!! Cheers, Joana

To: Mad2 who wrote (2439)	1/6/2000 9:55:00 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 3543

More opinions from the pros... How come Auric's not quoted here? <g> biz.yahoo.com Thursday January 6, 6:42 pm Eastern Time Market gurus see muted growth in stocks this year NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Investors should expect more modest gains from the U.S. stock market this year after its spectacular run-up in 1999, with technology stocks making less of a splash, a panel of market strategists said Thursday. ''We won't see a spectacular year, but I am more bullish than others,'' said Philip Orlando, who heads investment strategy at Value Line Asset Management. ''I also think that the Fed will take a wait and see approach before doing anything.'' Orlando's take, especially on the Federal Reserve, differed from the predictions of Byron Wien, the chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Wien, who put out his forecast Monday, reiterated that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates by 100 basis points this year that would help bring about a 25-percent drop in the Standard & Poor's index. The Internet sector will be whacked by a 50-percent correction, he said. Blue chips, health-care issues and other more traditional stocks will instead drive the market gains in 2000, Wien said. As a result, investors will have a more difficult time making money, he said. ''There is an extraordinary level of complacency on the part of most investors,'' Wien said. ''Most people think when they walk into a Charles Schwab or Morgan Stanley Dean Witter office, they are inoculated against risk...'' Other strategists pointed to the contrast in Internet stock share prices that surfaced in 1999 despite the intense hype. ''You couldn't just throw a dart at the Internet sector and hope the stock would go up,'' said Elizabeth Sonders, a managing director at Campbell, Cowperthwait, an investment firm focused on large-cap growth stocks. Internet firms targeting consumers did less well than business-to-business electronic commerce companies, Sonders said. Tech blue chips, such as Cisco Systems (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), were still reasonably valued because of consistently high earnings, she said. The wild hike in share prices of technology stocks, which drove the Nasdaq composite index to post a 86-percent gain last year, will not happen this year, a technology strategist said. Investors opting to plunk money into the sector will grapple with more risk, he said. ''To suggest that the technology stocks will repeat the performance of last year anytime soon is unlikely,'' said Arnold Berman, a strategist at Soundview Technology Group. But Berman outlined a trend he said would begin this year when U.S. companies start spending significantly on new technology, now that Y2K computer bug worries are behind them. Corporations will boost spending on new technology. As a result, applications designed by new fledgling technology companies will usher in a paradigm shift in technology. This shift in the way people use technology will give rise to a new generation of red-hot tech stocks, much the way Dell Computer Corp. (NasdaqNM:DELL - news) and Microsoft rose to stardom due to the switch in the U.S. corporate sector to PC-based systems from main frame computers. KJC

To: Mad2 who wrote (2439)	1/9/2000 12:11:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

"AOL, RCA, and The Shape of History" -- By Francois Sicart, ¸ Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., December 1999 tocqueville.com Mad2: Here is another interesting article along the same lines as your "Deals of a Century" article. Following is a short excerpt: "[It] has helped to create a vast new audience of a magnitude which was never dreamed of... This audience, invisible but attentive, differs not only in size but in kind from any audience the world has ever known. It is in reality a linking-up of millions of homes." "The miracle of [it]. I cannot tell you how it transformed our lives? Television never had its me-to-you intimacy." These two quotes are not about the Internet. They are about radio in the 1920s. The first one is excerpted from a 1929 report prepared for RCA by Owen Young, then Chairman of General Electric. The second is from a personal memoir of Alan Jenkins -- The Twenties -- published in 1974 by Peerage Books, London. Both comments illustrate how radio -- especially when combined with the growth of automobile and air transport -- revolutionized Man's perception of space and time in the 1920s, just as the Internet is doing, again, today... The article goes on to discuss a number of amazing parallels between AOL in the 1990's and RCA in the 1920's. Definitely worth a read. Razor