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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SOROS who wrote (15529)1/6/2000 4:08:00 PM
From: DiB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
 
>I will wait for another 50% Internet correction before coming back in on CMGI, AOL, YHOO.

JMHO: there are 1st-tier Inet companies and the rest of the bunch. Unless the market totally crashes (Naz below 3200), these 1st-tier companies won't have 50% correction. The key here is to identify those...



To: SOROS who wrote (15529)1/6/2000 4:22:00 PM
From: DiB  Respond to of 19700
 
Another *minor* point: CMGI actually is profitable and has rather moderate PE (high double digits). This may be important for *value* investors...



To: SOROS who wrote (15529)1/6/2000 7:31:00 PM
From: mike machi  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19700
 
ragingbull.com



To: SOROS who wrote (15529)1/6/2000 7:51:00 PM
From: TimbaBear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
 
"...I think you are right. I just worry that the perception of Internet companies is slowly changing..."

Sure the perception is changing....time is running out for those companies that don't have a sound business model....if a company grows revenues at 100% and grows net losses at 150%....that tells me they are buying the revenues rather than expanding their market along sound business models....any damn fool can give money away....the market will not long be tolerant of an internet venture that isn't growing revenues and decreasing losses.

"....CMGI, too, has a connection with internet-related IPOs...."

Yep, they are a venture capital firm!....however, if anything, venture capital money is pouring into the market, not leaving it....or are you thinking that stock speculators have lost their greed and won't buy the new issues?....the nice thing about CMGI is they are an operating company too, so if there is a problem with the IPO market, they'll just continue to build value until the market gets better.

"....When I look at CMGI's chart (and some other Internets) from Nov. on, it just seems they are so richly valued so quickly, that with the Nasdaq up 85%+ in 1999 and the average return over the last few years at like 30%+, it would not be inconceivable to actually have a DOWN year (perhaps major down for Internet-related companies)...."

I don't know what you base this conclusion on....the internet is not shrinking, it is expanding and evolving, becoming more ubiquitous....don't let the stories of some B2C companies maybe falling out of favor mislead you into thinking the internet is getting less popular....the B2B side of things is projected to grow 90%/year for the next 4 years....major market expansion is occurring in the rest of the world, and free access is broadening the income class that have access....I just don't see the pull-back or stagnation in the internet itself....CMGI has positioned itself to evolve profitably with the internet.

"....The risk/reward was too great for me at this point. It was very attractive in November, but the downside seems too great for me at this point. I have moved totally into QCOM (I know, richly valued, but unlike Internet-based companies, their revenues should skyrocket even if Internet goes flat) and cash...."

Compared to CMGI, Qualcomm is a one trick pony!....if the CDMA technology changes to something faster, able to handle vastly more data, etc....QCOM stock price is toast!....CMGI, on the other hand, is 52 companies (growing to 120 by fiscal 2000 year-end), all chosen for their business models and many interwoven into the CMGI family....quite a different picture.

Will this current environment of a strong year-end run, followed by the Fed draining liquidity, combined with some big name firms warnings of earnings shortfalls, at a time when it is likely the Fed will raise rates to slow the economy so that inflation doesn't get any more out of control result in a 50% correction?.....I don't know, but if it does, it'll bring most companies down (QCOM included), and it will be a short term event....the internet is the current wave and CMGI is a behemoth in the making with a very undervalued price, even at it's highs....if it doubles the number of companies it controls and quadruples it's revenue stream, and overall, it is profitable (between venture and operating)....what multiple would you put on it?