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To: DownSouth who wrote (2008)	1/6/2000 5:44:00 PM
From: kas1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10934

Just for fun, let me go out on a limb and make some predictions. Here are the phenomena I am observing right now (objective stuff): 1) People on most SI threads are soiling themselves, even the "respected" posters on the "respected" threads. (of course, no one ever soils themselves on the NTAP thread!) Blood is running in the streets. This is very different from a day or two ago, when everyone was taking it in stride and buying on the dips. 2) Lucent problems seem to be company-specific and actually beneficial for next-generation (DWDM) networking companies. 3) A lot of the air has been taken out of names like CMGI and Qualcomm. 4) Popular media is no longer saying "Looks like another great year for stocks!" which is what they were saying a few days/weeks ago. Even the notoriously bearish briefing.com was quite bullish last week, which is a bigtime contrarian signal. So... my prediction is.... this downturn lasts until Monday or Tuesday, then we start blasting off to new highs and all's well. But until then, I advise those using margin to put some cash in your account, sell some of the riskier names (eat your losses; selling a stock at a loss is better than losing your house), and just sit tight. :-) I advise against doubling down or using options. Just IMHO. (BWDIK?)* * BWDIK = "But What Do I Know?" catchphrase of SI's famous Bill Huebl, a humble, intelligent, diligent, and well-informed poster, who, to his great ridicule, has been predicting Dow 500 for the past few years.

To: DownSouth who wrote (2008)	1/6/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: HDC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10934

DS, Hi! After further review, it appears that a significant portion of the sales at the end of the day were caused by margined traders who were forced to sell. Margin can sure burn you on the way down! In case you haven't noticed yet, NTAP's correction has now reached 20% following a high of $90 recently. I think we may have reached the lower range on our correction. There was a rumor floating around that Microsoft might miss its number if you can believe it. Boy, the warnings & rumors of warnings season is in full bloom!<g> Goldman Sach's analyst put that one to rest in an interview on CNBC this afternoon. He said he had talked with the company and they wouldn't have a problem. The Lucent warning was company specific according a Robbie Stephens analyst. They have their hands full with their customers switching to fiber optics. It will be a real horse race to see if they can increase their fiber optic equipment sales fast enough to offset the slowing of their legacy switching equipment business. In after hours trading CSCO is called down $5 in sympathy with Lucent. I can't believe that people would shed CSCO after rising 124,825% during the decade of the 1990's. I'm encouraged with my NTAP after Robbie Stephens said they remind them of CSCO back in the 1980's before they grew to dominate the networking sector. I think we have a fun decade ahead of us - after this correction, of course. <g> Best, Duncan