To: Bill who wrote (4158 ) 1/6/2000 6:52:00 PM From: Stocker Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14638
Herb Greenberg wrote about potential troubles with back-end loaded quarters and aggressive accounting at Lucent quite some time ago. I'm glad I listened because I was considering LU at the time. Here's the latest from theStreet.com: *Update* The Real Deal By James J. Cramer 1/6/00 6:09 PM ET In an effort to keep you updated on the breaking Lucent news, James Cramer will continuously provide his observations on the situation, which we'll list below. Please refresh this page for his latest thoughts. This is the real deal. A major blowup of a major company. Now we find out what this market -- or markets, judging by the NDX vs. the Dow -- are made of. Even as I write, many Nasdaq stocks are offered down 4 or 5 and they are trading. In size. In major six figures. Institutions are panicking. They are throwing away stock at any level buyers can find. Lucent (LU:NYSE - news) encompasses so many different areas, from telecommunications to semiconductors to dot-com equipment. To ignore it, even if there are execution issues, is to play ostrich. I know this: Lucent missed the boat by a mile. (And, by the way, Herb Greenberg warned that this was going to happen on our show, and I am sure glad I listened, even as I feel terrible for the holders and all of the people who work there in my hometown in Jersey.) Therefore this is not one of those situations where the collateral damage will be slight. It will be heavy. Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news), Sun Microsystems (SUNW:Nasdaq - news), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news) will be impacted. (I know this because they are trading down heavily as I write.) This blowup is tailor-made for the bears. Let's respect their right to maul and maim at will tonight and tomorrow. What I have not done is buy any Lucent at 54 where it is trading aggressively. Too early. Too hard. Too, well, nightmarish. One final thought: For those of you who would think the market is just plain over, remember that this market has weathered shortfalls and problems from everything from IBM (IBM:NYSE - news) to Intel, from Merck (MRK:NYSE - news) to Microsoft. To give up because of Lucent seems a little rash, even as it would seem to fit the short-term bill. Minute-by-Minute Coverage 5:48 p.m. EST: It looks like the problem is not demand. That emboldens us to buy a little of the big tech names down between 5 and 7 points. Case in point: We just were bidding for Oracle down 8 and we got hit. Ouch, someone just hit us with Sun Microsystems down 5. Optical fans will want to know that the optical biz was quite strong and the old Ascend business registered great strength too. But execution? Sloppier than anybody would believe. 6:03 p.m. EST: And Lucent continues to trade lower, now at 50. Still a good no-do.