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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (2451)	1/6/2000 9:25:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Respond to of 3543

Wait a second, KIS-- I want to also stake a claim. And, unlike your claim, I did it well in advance: Message 12386524 Yes, you're right. The blowoff will occur when Amazon gives its next losses report. My reasoning is very simple. The psychology is that this is the make or break season. Well, Amazon will both make and break at the same time. It will make a record amount of sales and break everyones hopes that it will ever be profitable. Even if they say, "maybe next Christmas", snake-oil-analysts will be looking at another three quarters of poor performance. They'll worry enough to dump some and that will set the ball rolling. Now I admit that they technically didn't give an earnings (losses) report, rather, they pre-announced. But I was on the mark about record revenues and record losses and the effect it would have on the psychology of the market.